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🦅 The world is closely watching the Federal Reserve's "hawkish claws": an interest rate cut seems almost certain, but the "art of speaking" will shake the market!
💥 This week, the world officially enters the "central bank decision time"; every move by the Federal Reserve becomes the center of the storm. Although a 25 basis point rate cut is already a market consensus (with a probability as high as 87.4%), this rate cut may not be gentle—investors are nervously awaiting a potential "hawkish surprise".
🔥 The market is fluctuating in advance: U.S. stocks and bonds are both under pressure
On the eve of the decision, caution has swept the market: all three major U.S. stock indices fell, and interest rate-sensitive sectors faced sell-offs. The bond market is also on edge, with funds positioning defensively in advance.
🚨 The key is not the rate cut, but the "after conversation"
The real focus is on the Federal Reserve's "second half": Will the policy statement retain strong inflation language? Does the dot plot suggest that the rate hike cycle is not over? Will Powell's press conference suppress future rate cut expectations? Any hawkish hints could turn this rate cut into a "tightening signal".
🤔 The yen faces sudden changes: Could the strong earthquake undermine rate hike expectations?
A 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan has occurred, causing the dollar to break above 155 against the yen. If the disaster leads to significant losses, the Bank of Japan's planned rate hike may very well be shelved, and policy may shift towards post-disaster reconstruction, adding more uncertainty to the yen exchange rate.
💎 Global central banks are "silently observing the tide"
Aside from the Federal Reserve, central banks in Australia, Switzerland, Canada, and several other countries will also hold meetings this week. They are generally expected to remain on hold, highlighting the cautious approach to policy shifts amid the fog of the global economy.
💰 Multiple risks are brewing
✅ European Central Bank officials unexpectedly released a signal of "not ruling out rate hikes," putting pressure on the euro;
✅ Geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations continue to disturb market sentiment;
✅ Any unexpected data or statements could ignite cross-asset volatility.
✨ The eye of the storm is after the decision
The rate cut itself is already anticipated, but the Federal Reserve's wording, Japan's post-disaster decisions, and the coordinated attitude of global central banks are the undercurrents that will determine the market direction. Global traders are already on high alert—the aftermath of this "hawkish rate cut" may just be beginning.
