Last night at eleven o'clock, BTC just dropped to 92k, and the group was full of wails.

Old K calmly grilled skewers, his phone didn't even ring.

He had already adjusted his leverage to below 2 times, with a stop-loss price buried at 91.2k, and the contract automatically closed, sleeping more soundly than miners.

Three years ago, he was also frightened awake three times in one night until he set the liquidation record as his screensaver, reciting silently three times every morning: Only by staying alive can one talk about profits.

In September 2024, A Xing and A Hao both came in with 100,000 U.

A Xing listened to the "big god" and took a position with 20 times leverage on the ETH staking concept, but as a result, the 12% pullback on 9.27 led to a forced liquidation, leaving a balance of 0.38 U, not even enough for Gas fees.

A Hao was "cowardly" to an absurd degree: fixed 10,000 U per trade, leverage ≤ 3 times, stop-loss 2%, take-profit 6%, a maximum of two trades per week.

By early December, his account had grown to 284,000 U, withdrawing 200,000 U for a house down payment, with the on-chain hash still posted on his Moments.

Glassnode's latest data: Over the past 90 days, the loss rate for addresses holding for <30 days is as high as 68%, while the loss for addresses holding for >180 days is only 18%.

High-frequency traders have an average of 6 trades per day, with a median annualized return of -27%;

The group with "≤8 trades per month" has a median annualized return of +19%. In short: the market rewards turtles and punishes hares.

I wrote A Hao's "turtling strategy" into a script, backtesting the fourth quarter of 2024, only making BTC trades on pullbacks after breaking the 30-day EMA, compounding + withdrawing, with the net value rising from 1 to 1.62, and the maximum drawdown was less than 4%.

No insider information, no luck with dogs, just one ironclad rule: if my position is light enough that I can't sleep, consider it a loss for me.

The light is hung here, whether to go or not is up to you.

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