$MERL The current structure is no longer a 'callback issue'; it has completely entered a 'bearish-led market'.

From the market, you can clearly feel three signals:

First, the rebound lacks continuity;

Second, the high-level support has obviously declined;

Third, every pullback is quickly countered back to its original position.

What does this indicate?

It indicates that the current market dominance is no longer in the bulls, but on the side of supply and realization rhythm.

December itself is a time window that is extremely sensitive to supply rhythm; the market's trading logic has switched from 'expectation-driven' to -

Who is selling, who sells first, who sells quickly.

Every short-term surge you see now essentially resembles:

✅ Bullish replenishment

✅ Bearish covering

✅ Capital doing T

Rather than 'trend capital entering'.

When an asset enters this structure, its biggest characteristic is just one:

The rise relies on emotion, the fall relies on structure.

And now, the structure clearly stands on the bearish side.

From the price behavior perspective, every rebound currently is a 'technical pullback' within the original downward channel, without forming any effective trend reversal signal. As long as there is no significant volume confirmation in support, the price will continue to move down to find a new balance area, which aligns more with capital behavior logic.

If we deduce based on structure, the area around 0.2 is more likely to become the next real battleground for bulls and bears.

In other words:

Discussing 'trend initiation' at high levels now is essentially betting against the supply rhythm;

But standing on the structural side, following the downward channel is the most appropriate choice.

It’s not about who is pessimistic; the market has already drawn the direction for you.