$ETH 🔥🔥In just a few hours, the earthquake shattered Japan's rate hike plan! Did Kuroda's final gamble completely fail?
A magnitude 7.6 earthquake not only shook the Japanese archipelago but may also directly disrupt global financial market expectations—the long-discussed pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan has suddenly encountered a “geological fault” barrier!
Market sentiment has shifted dramatically. Just before the earthquake occurred, the yen exchange rate was betting on the central bank's imminent farewell to negative interest rates, and government bond yields were stirring. However, with the disaster striking, everything came to a halt. Analysts exclaimed, “The last ‘screw’ in the policy shift has been completely loosened by this natural disaster.”
The core logic hits the nail on the head: post-disaster reconstruction outweighs everything else. The government’s massive fiscal stimulus is ready to go, and if the central bank tightens monetary policy and raises financing costs at this moment, it would be akin to an economic “shock therapy.” Infrastructure repairs, corporate support, and livelihood protection—all require an extremely loose monetary environment to provide lifeblood. The Bank of Japan is forced to make a painful choice between its ambition for “policy normalization” and the reality of “economic stability.”
A deeper game lies in confidence. The Japanese economy has just begun to see the dawn of escaping deflation, with consumer and investment confidence on thin ice. The physical destruction and psychological shock from the earthquake may severely damage this fragility. Any signal from the central bank that could be interpreted as “tightening” at this moment will be infinitely magnified by the market, leading to unpredictable chain reactions. Maintaining the status quo and continuing to observe has almost become the only option.
This natural disaster has dragged the monetary policy of the world's third-largest economy into a more complex maze. In the coming months, every move by the Bank of Japan will not only concern domestic recovery but will also influence global capital flows and interest rate patterns. Kuroda Haruhiko's “legacy” and Ueda Kazuo's “new chapter” are clashing fiercely in the aftermath of the earthquake. The ultimate question for the market is: Will Japan's “rate hike year” be delayed or even rewritten? Everyone is waiting for the next signal from Tokyo. #加密市场观察 $ZEC
