$ETH Don't just focus on interest rate cuts! Institutions warn: The Federal Reserve may soon 'change its tune'. What do you think about the potential 'hawkish' interest rate cuts?
Crypto friends, the latest forecast from Barclays has arrived: although they also believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, the key point is what comes next — the post-meeting statement may include 'hawkish' wording, suggesting a pause on interest rate cuts in January next year.
What does this mean? Translated, it means: 'A piece of candy is given, but you are told there may not be another one next time.' This is a clear deviation from the current market's expectation of unobstructed easing. More importantly, their dot plot prediction is also leaning towards conservatism, indicating a slow pace of interest rate cuts over the next two years.
The impact on the market is direct: this could be a bucket of cold water on 'expectations management'. If the Federal Reserve really does this, the 'ongoing interest rate cut frenzy' narrative that the market has been trading on will be challenged, and the risk of disappointment and correction in the market after 'good news realization' will increase.
Key reminders for retail investors:
Lower expectations: Don't treat interest rate cuts as a 'one-button skyrocket' button. The focus this time is not on 'whether to cut', but rather on 'what is said after the cut'.
Keep an eye on two core points: First, every word from Powell’s press conference, especially regarding the economic outlook and future policies; second, the latest interest rate dot plot, to see if the official predictions for the coming years are more 'hawkish' than the market expects.
Maintain flexible positions: Before the resolution of this huge uncertainty, retaining some cash or stablecoins will allow you to be more composed in the face of any directional volatility.
In summary, the key term this week is not 'interest rate cut', but 'measure'. The market needs to reassess the pace of policies, and we also need to adjust our mindset and positions.
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