Regarding the price trend of Ethereum after the 'halving', there is significant divergence in market views. Although Ethereum does not have a fixed 'halving' event like Bitcoin, its 'Merge' upgrade completed in 2022 and the ongoing deflationary mechanism together create a strong supply shock that profoundly affects the price. To assess its future price, a comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as market supply and demand, technical trends, institutional capital, and macro environment is required.
1. Market Consensus: Key Watershed and Core Logic
Currently, $3,000 is widely regarded as a key psychological and technical threshold determining Ethereum's short-term direction. If the price stabilizes above this support level, it may test higher resistance; conversely, it may trigger a deeper correction. The core logic supporting this price is supply tightening and institutional demand:
· Supply Shock: Ethereum's transition to proof of stake through the 'merger' has significantly reduced the new issuance rate to about 0.4%, coupled with the EIP-1559 transaction fee burning mechanism, causing it to enter a deflationary state on certain days. In addition, as many as 36.1 million ETH (approximately 30% of the total supply) are locked in staking contracts, greatly reducing the circulating supply in the market.
· Institutional Demand: The approval and capital inflow of the US spot Ethereum ETF is a significant variable. Despite recent fluctuations in capital, the continued existence of the ETF provides a compliant entry channel for traditional capital, which is completely different from the historical market structure.
2. Market Outlook Under the Intertwining of Long and Short Factors
Future price direction depends on the interplay of multiple forces. For a clear comparison, the analysis of key influencing factors is as follows:
Bullish Factors
· Continuous Supply Deflation: The staking and burning mechanism long-term locks and destroys ETH, forming strong support for the fundamentals.
· Technical Upgrades Enhance Utility: Upgrades such as Dencun significantly improve network processing capabilities and reduce costs, enhancing ecological competitiveness.
· Long-term Institutional Layout: Despite short-term outflows, the continued large purchases by companies like BitMine indicate that some capital is optimistic about long-term value.
Bearish Risks
· Key Technical Level Breached: If the price effectively falls below $3,000, based on historical patterns, it may open a decline space of 20%-25%, targeting areas of $2,800 or even $2,500.
· Layer 2 Network Diversion Effect: The prosperity of Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Base may reduce the direct demand for native tokens on the Ethereum mainnet.
· Capital Outflows and Market Sentiment: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index once indicated that the market was in a state of 'extreme fear,' compounded by net outflows of ETF capital, which may exacerbate short-term selling pressure.
3. Institutional Views and Price Scenario Forecasts
Professional financial institutions have provided vastly different forecasts based on varying assumptions, which itself reflects the market's high uncertainty. Below is a summary of views from some institutions:
Citigroup (September 2025 forecast)
· Benchmark Scenario: Drops to $4,300 by the end of the year. It is believed that the value transmission effect of Layer 2 network activities on the mainnet is still unclear.
· Bull Market Scenario: Rises to $6,400.
· Bear Market Scenario: Drops to $2,200.
Standard Chartered (March 2025 View)
· Early Forecast: Previously set a target of $10,000 by 2025.
· Revision of Forecast: Due to the rise of Layer 2 networks, the target has been lowered to $4,000.
Other Market Views
· Historical Data Reference: Some analysts speculate based on seasonal patterns that if history repeats, Ethereum has the potential to hit $6,000 in specific months after the halving. However, history also shows a high probability of a pullback in September after a strong increase in August.
· Extremely Optimistic View: Some market opinions believe that considering multiple positive factors, Standard Chartered's $7,500 forecast may be 'too low.'
4. Summary and Strategy Recommendations
In summary, Ethereum is at a critical crossroads. In the long term, its deflationary model and technological evolution form the cornerstone of its value; however, short-term trends are constrained by technical support, ETF capital flows, and the overall risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market.
For investors, the following strategies can be adopted:
· Key Position Decision: Treat $3,000 as an important observation point and risk control benchmark. If it can effectively stabilize above this level, a cautious bullish outlook may be warranted; if it drops significantly, one must beware of deep pullback risks.
· Gradual Layout and Risk Control: Consider gradual layout near key support areas, while ensuring stop-loss settings to guard against extreme market conditions.
· Focus on Core Signals: Closely track changes in capital flow of the spot Ethereum ETF, whether the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate (ETH/BTC) has stopped declining and rebounded, as well as network activity data; these will be important indicators for assessing capital intentions and the health of the fundamentals.
I hope the above analysis provides you with a clear reference. If you want to know how Ethereum's deflationary mechanism is specifically calculated, or if you want to understand the current conditions of specific technical indicators affecting its price (such as RSI, MACD), I can provide further analysis.
