$BTC $ETH $ZEC 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan 'scares' yen rate hike! Global markets are on high alert, and the Federal Reserve may unleash a 'hawkish rate cut'
This week, global markets welcome a central bank 'super week', with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting undoubtedly being the focus. Although a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, investors are concerned that this rate cut may come with hawkish signals, evolving into a 'hawkish rate cut'. The market holds its breath, and volatility has quietly begun.
US stock and bond markets move in sync: cautious sentiment spreads
On Monday, US stocks saw a comprehensive pullback: the Dow fell 0.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.17%. Rate-sensitive sectors were the first to be hit, as funds chose to retreat before the Federal Reserve's decision.
Rate cut ≠ dovish! Beware of the Federal Reserve's 'face change'
The market has priced in a 87.4% probability of a rate cut, but the key lies in the subsequent guidance. Will the policy statement emphasize inflation concerns? Will the latest dot plot raise interest rate expectations? Will Powell downplay the possibility of further rate cuts in his press conference? These will determine the market direction.
Analysts warn that the current economy is similar to 'stagflation', and there may be rare divisions within the Federal Reserve. If there are multiple dissenting votes, market volatility is bound to intensify.
Yen suffers a heavy blow: strong earthquake may force Bank of Japan to delay rate hike
Japan experienced a sudden 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which not only triggered tsunami warnings but also shook the foreign exchange market. The dollar against the yen surged to 155.97. If the disaster leads to expanded losses, the Bank of Japan's planned rate hike next week may very likely be forced to be postponed, with the policy focus possibly shifting to post-disaster support.
Global central banks hold collective meetings: most remain still
Apart from the Federal Reserve, central banks in Australia, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, and others will also hold meetings this week. It is generally expected that they will maintain interest rates unchanged, highlighting the cautious approach of various central banks amid global economic uncertainty.
Market hears all sides: geopolitics, oil prices, and European trends
· European stock markets slightly declined, and the euro came under pressure. ECB officials even hinted that 'the next step may be a rate hike'.
Summary: The real storm comes after the decision
A rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but how the Federal Reserve 'speaks' is key. Coupled with the Japanese earthquake disaster, global central bank decisions, and geopolitical situations, the market is in a highly sensitive period. Any unexpected signals could trigger a new round of volatility.
