Discipline is more important than prediction; as long as you're alive, there will be output.
I still remember when I first entered the circle, like many others, I thought about getting rich quickly. As a result, I lost more than half of my capital in less than three months. Later, I slowly understood that in this market, staying alive is much more important than making money quickly.
The method shared today is the experience I bought with real money. It may seem a bit 'foolish', but it has indeed helped me maintain my mindset amid fluctuations and achieve steady growth in my assets.
Step one: Manage your bullets, never fire them all at once.
I divided my initial 2000U into 20 parts, using only 100U for each trade. This is not cowardice, but to give myself enough room to make mistakes.
How exactly to operate?
After a successful first battle, I will invest my principal and 50% of the profits into the next trade, riding the momentum; if I continue to profit, I will adjust to fixed bets of 2% of the total capital. For example, if the account grows to 5000U, I will place 100U on each trade, so even if I incur losses, it won’t affect the fundamentals.
I have seen too many people (including myself) go all in at the start, only to be forced out by a single fluctuation. Diversifying is not cowardice, but wisdom—it allows you to maintain a stable mindset amid volatility, and a stable mindset is the key to profitability.
Step two: Focus only on high-probability signals and avoid frequent trading.
I now spend no more than an hour a day looking at the market, most of the time waiting. Waiting for what? For those two high-probability signals that I have verified countless times.
My two core signals:
On the 1-hour chart, EMA7 crosses above EMA21—this represents a shift in the short-term trend and is a good time to enter the market.
On the 4-hour chart, the MACD crosses above the zero line, and the volume bars turn red—this combination signal has a high win rate because it indicates that the downward momentum is exhausted and buying pressure is starting to enter.
I used to be a frequent trader, feeling an itch if I didn’t make a few trades every day. I found that the more frequently I traded, the faster I lost. Now, I only trade when signals I’m familiar with appear; at other times, I either rest or learn.
Step three: Iron discipline, set stop losses as soon as you open a position.
For each of my trades, I set a 1% stop loss and a 3% profit-taking level at the moment I open the position. For example, if I enter at 100U, I will automatically cut losses if it drops to 99U and take profits if it rises to 103U.
I use a timer to lock my screen, forcing myself to check the market no more than 5 times a day, and no more than 5 minutes each time. This habit has helped me overcome my 'itchy hands' problem and avoid emotional trading.
I remember once I set a stop loss and went to sleep, only to find the market had fluctuated wildly the next morning. I was just stopped out, avoiding greater losses. At that moment, I became even more convinced: in this market, discipline can really save lives.
Step four: Grasp time nodes and avoid trading traps.
I have found that between 1-3 AM (Beijing time), volatility tends to be large, making it easier to capture profit-taking opportunities of over 3%.
However, there are two 'death zones' I basically avoid: the first 3 days of each month and Friday evenings from 8-10 PM. These times are often the peak periods for institutional liquidations, with fluctuations that lack logic, making it easy for retail investors to be harvested.
My trading insights.
The essence of making a profit in the crypto world is not predicting market trends but decisively acting when familiar signals appear, while learning to give up on unfamiliar trends.
After making a profit, it’s okay to increase your position, but after a loss, you must stop and rest. Many people want to quickly make back their losses after losing money, but they end up losing even more.
Time is more important than technique. Most of the time, the market has no direction; waiting is the highest skill.
Finally, I want to say that this market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is patience and discipline. The simplest methods are often the most effective because they align with the essence of this market: rewarding discipline and punishing randomness.
Feel free to share your trading insights in the comments—we will survive and thrive in this market together! Follow A Ke for more firsthand information and precise points about the crypto world, becoming your guide in crypto, as learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $ETH
