1. The truth that diverges from 'common sense': slow decline and quick rise is a knife, while fast decline and slow rise is gold.
I have seen too many people die in the trap of 'rapid rise and slow decline.' There was a friend who chased a popular coin; after a rapid surge, it slowly declined. He firmly believed it was a washout, but ended up being trapped for two years. The main forces never announce their exits: if a rapid rise is followed by a 'slow knife cutting flesh' type of decline, it indicates that funds are quietly retreating; conversely, only a 'fast drop followed by a slow rise' could signal accumulation.
The cruelest lie in the market is packaging a rebound as an opportunity. The rebound after a flash crash is like a poisoned candy; my brother once lost 30% overnight because he was infatuated with such rebounds. Now he understands: 'A flash crash is the market calling for help, not inviting you to catch the bottom.'
2. High position consolidation: The silent trigger of explosion.
Many people think that 'increased volume with a decline' is the scariest, but in reality, high position consolidation with reduced volume is the hidden bomb. I experienced a project where the price stagnated at a high position for half a month, volume exhausted, yet the community cheered 'it's stable.' What happened? The project team took advantage of the liquidity drain to dump, causing the token price to halve overnight.
Liquidity is the oxygen of price; a flat market with no volume equals a sign of suffocation. Now I have set a strict rule: any cryptocurrency that remains flat at a high position for more than 7 days and continues to shrink in volume will be cut by 50% unconditionally.
3. Bottom signal: Wait for the market to 'hold your hand tightly' before taking action.
Buying the bottom halfway up the mountain is more despairing than missing out entirely. In my early years, I always believed that 'increased volume at the bottom means entry,' only to be buried repeatedly. Later, I understood: increased volume may be a trick played by the main force, but 'consolidation with reduced volume + breakout with increased volume' is the market's real handshake—indicating the end of the bull-bear battle and the formation of directional consensus.
The real bottom is never a V-shaped reversal, but rather forged through time. Just like I often tell my team: 'Better to miss ten false bottoms than to wait for one true right side.'
4. Volume and price: K-lines are the script, volume is the director.
K-lines can be drawn, news can be fabricated, but volume is hard to fake in the long term. My core formula for judging trends: 'Price breaks through previous highs + volume continues to gently expand' = true breakout; 'Price hits a new high + volume shrinks' = entrapment.
For example, last year with a certain public chain token, the K-line seemed to be consolidating strongly, but the volume continued to shrink, so I immediately liquidated. A week later, the project team sold off, and the token price dropped by 60%. Volume is the ticket that funds are invested in with real money; not understanding volume is like dancing tango in the dark.
5. Mentality cultivation: The transformation from 'hunter' to 'farmer.'
The hardest part of the crypto world has never been the technology, but the restraint of 'itchy hands.' I once lost 80% in a month due to frequent trading, and later realized: 'Holding cash is the highest level of position.' Now, in my trading log, I open positions a maximum of 3 times a month, and my win rate has doubled instead.
True maturity is having the courage to admit 'if I don’t understand it, I won’t touch it.' It's like farming: patiently waiting for the planting season, not fearing droughts or floods, and not being attached to the fruits during harvest. The market rewards not diligence, but a sense of rhythm.
6. The ultimate rule of survival: Make yourself into an 'anti-fragile' system.
I never believe in 'sure-win strategies'; I only build a system that allows you to 'fall and grab a handful of sand to stand up':
Position management: No single token position exceeds 10%, and the stop-loss line is set at -15% of the entry price;
Cycle perception: In a bull market, hold onto the leaders and don’t let go; in a bear market, only play spot and avoid contracts;
Information filtering: Treat the 'calls' of Twitter influencers as scripts; only trust on-chain data and project code updates.
In conclusion: The market will always reward the 'awakened minority.'
After four years of trials, I have gone from pursuing 'getting rich quick' to understanding that 'not blowing up' is winning. There are no gods in the crypto world, only survivors who have stumbled. If you have ever stared at the K-line in the middle of the night, feeling at a loss, remember: in solitude, be a bit calmer; in frenzy, be a bit more vigilant—this is our hardest armor.
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