Brothers, I am Hongcai! SOL has been falling since it couldn't break the resistance at 140! The good news is that the U.S. ETF has been secretly buying again. Is this building momentum or losing energy? Don't guess, let's break it down directly!
News
The U.S. Solana spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.18 million yesterday, with one firm buying $1.18 million. Don't underestimate it; the total historical inflow has already reached $47.6 million! What does this indicate? Traditional large funds are continuously and gradually laying out their positions in SOL; they are looking at the long term, not just tomorrow's ups and downs. This is a solid long-term confidence support for SOL.
Technical Analysis
The 1-hour chart is very clear; 135 has become the key level for bulls and bears to tug back and forth. Yesterday's high broke back down, and today several attempts to test it have not stabilized, indicating that there is significant pressure here. However, as long as the support at 128 below does not break, the rebound structure is still intact.
The current indicator is 'underwater dead cross', indicating that the short-term is indeed weak and needs time to recover. This is not a signal of the end of a bull market, but rather a pause and consolidation along the way up.
My opinion
I believe that the difficulty of a direct violent surge to break through 135 today is relatively high. The more likely scenario is: first, a pullback to test the support in the 128-130 range. If it can stabilize here, and after a decrease in volume, it expands again, then there is hope to restart the rebound and challenge 135 again. After breaking 135, the next target will be the 140-145 pressure zone. In simple terms: hold above 128, and there is still a chance.
What should retail investors do?
Don't chase highs near 135! If the price returns to the support zone and stabilizes, consider a light position to try going long.
If the price breaks through 135 with increased volume and stabilizes, you can consider entering with a light position.
If it breaks below 128 with increased volume, regardless of the news, short-term long positions should exit to observe; do not hold on stubbornly.
SOL has ETF funds supporting it, and the logic of the long-term trend is still in place. However, it is currently being pressured by 135, so some patience is needed. Remember, good things take time; near key levels, it's better to wait for direction to become clear before acting, rather than rushing in blindly and getting hurt!
On Thursday, the topic of interest rate cuts dominated discussions; be cautious as emotions can skew the rhythm. Real opportunities are always in the hands of the calm. Come to Hongcai and see how we plan every certain attack!#加密市场观察 $SOL
