On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has long been seen as a certainty by the market, so there's not much suspense!
The real focus is on Powell's statements after the meeting. Is he hinting that 'this will be the last cut' or leaving the door open for further cuts?
Every word will be scrutinized by the market, and the current situation is quite tangled: employment data is a bit soft, inflation hasn't fully cooled down, and the previous government shutdown has left data in disarray, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to make judgments.
Therefore, Powell is likely to lean towards a 'hawkish' stance, emphasizing the need to monitor subsequent data and not making definitive statements.
If he expresses a cautious stance, the market's current optimism may need to take a breather. The most unexpected scenario would be if there is no rate cut at all, which would likely cause a stir.
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