$BTC $BTCUSDT.P There is a high probability that December will end with a large bearish candle, and it may even close with a long upper shadow gravestone doji/shooting star.

3. Recent trends (1-3 months) most likely to occur

The three most probable paths, sorted by likelihood:

1. (55%)

December will close with a large bearish candle → January and February will continue to decline, targeting 83,000-85,000 (0.618 retracement level) → It is even possible to revisit 78,000-80,000 (previous high platform)

→ Afterwards, it will resume the upward trend, aiming to reach new highs of 120,000-150,000 in the second and third quarters of 2025 (bull market wave 5)

2. (30%)

Late December will stop falling, directly building a monthly bottom in the 88,000-92,000 range → January will recover with a bullish candle, continuing the main upward trend of the bull market

(Requires significant volume long lower shadow + favorable policy support, current probability is low)

3. (15%)

Continuously losing 90,000 and rapidly declining, breaking below 80,000 → Entering a bear market (very low probability, current capital situation + macro environment does not support this)

Short term (remaining time in December + January): Clearly more suitable for short positions

• Monthly level adjustment has just begun, bearish momentum has not yet been fully released

• 90,000 has been broken, the next strong support is at 83,000-85,000, with basically no strong support in between

• The bulls are currently in a state of panic selling + forced liquidation, which can easily lead to sharp declines and overnight spikes

The probability of a short view towards the 80,000-85,000 area is the highest, while the medium to long-term still looks bullish, but it is necessary to wait for clear signals indicating the end of the adjustment (such as a hammer candle at the monthly level + a strong bullish candle) before making significant long positions.

Now is not a good time to bottom fish; below 85,000 is the entry point for golden long positions in the first half of 2025.