Sentora Weekly Report: The Changing Winds of DeFi, Underlying Market Currents

Sentora's latest weekly market report titled "Monthly Trading Volume of Perpetual Contracts Exceeds $1 Trillion, Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates: What is the Future Direction of DeFi?" reveals a lot of key information.

First, let's talk about Bitcoin. Recently, the on-chain transaction fees for Bitcoin have dropped a bit, with a decrease of 8.6%, and the current fee is $2.03 million. This shows that the recent rise in Bitcoin is mainly not due to frequent trading, but rather that the spot market is slowly accumulating. There's another interesting phenomenon: in the past seven days, net outflows from trading platforms reached $2.06 billion, which is a strong bullish signal! It indicates that everyone in the market is hoarding coins, with investors transferring Bitcoin from trading platforms to their own accounts, planning to hold for the long term. As a result, the supply of spot has decreased.

Now let's look at the decentralized perpetual contract market, which is bustling with activity. The trading volume has surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in a month. According to DefiLlama's data, the 30-day trading volume for perpetual futures is currently around $1.3 trillion (this is rolling data), and the open interest is also $17.9 billion, which represents a significant structural leap. Previously, on-chain derivatives might not have seemed significant to many, but now it’s different; on-chain traders are well-capitalized and have sufficient depth of funds. Moreover, the way macroeconomic news affects the market has changed; it is now spreading quickly through capital and open interest rather than through spot trading.

Finally, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. In fact, after the policy shift in September, the market had basically anticipated this. Based on historical experience, the biggest fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market usually occur when policies are first adjusted, and subsequent interest rate cuts may have less and less impact, even potentially bringing negative effects. However, this time Powell refused to guarantee continued easing in December, which surprised many. It seems that the relationship between the cryptocurrency market and macroeconomic policies is becoming increasingly subtle, and the future direction is really hard to say; we’ll just have to wait and see!

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