3-min read | Tools inside | Not financial advice – DYOR
Price check: 09 Dec 2025, 10:00 UTC – $1.76 (–10 % week, +2 % day)
1. Snapshot vs History
2. Signal 1 – Exchange Outflow > 5 M
30-day outflow > 5 M APT → next 10-day move: +15 %, +18 %, +22 %
Today: -7.2 M and still dropping → condition active.
3. Signal 2 – Funding Negative 3 Days
funding < -0.01 % for 72 h → average bounce +17 %
Status: funding locked at -0.011 % for 48 h → needs one more daily close to qualify.
4. Signal 3 – Staked-Price Divergence
Formula: new staked high + price below 200-DMA
Track record in 2025:
14 Mar → price +21 % in 8 days
27 Jun → price +19 % in 6 days
09 Sep → price +12 % in 5 days
Now: staked ATH and price -30 % from 200-DMA → combo live.
5. Trade Plan (Risk-First)
Size: 2 % equity max, 3× lev. cap.
Invalidation: daily close below $1.59 (not just wick).
APT
1.838
+5.99%
APTUSDT
Perp
1.8373
+6.03%