In 2015, I rushed into the cryptocurrency world with the 70,000 yuan I saved from working. Like countless newcomers, my head was filled with the frenzy of 'getting rich overnight.' Nine years have passed, and my account balance has rolled from five digits to eight digits, but what truly kept me here is not luck; it is the iron law earned through liquidation and missed opportunities. Today, I won't talk about inspirational quotes, but rather share the practical insights that have helped me 'die slower.'
1. Risk management is a protective talisman, not a skill.
I have seen too many people fall into the false dreams of altcoins: fully invested, maxed out on leverage, and losing everything in three days. The first lesson in the crypto world is always to survive.
My bottom line iron law:
Divide funds into 5 parts, moving a maximum of 1 part each time, no matter how good the opportunity is.
If a single loss exceeds 10%, close the position immediately—acknowledging mistakes is more practical than fantasizing about recovery.
If you lose more than 20% in a month, turn off the computer immediately; the market doesn’t close, but your capital will.
Newbies always want to 'take a gamble', but seasoned investors know: the pits you avoid are worth more than the money you earn. For instance, during the Bitcoin crash in 2020, I toughened it out empty-handed through March, waiting for the bottom-fishing opportunity in April. Those who rushed in with leverage early became the denominators in the liquidation data.
Two, the trend is king, going against it is a ghost.
There are no heroes in the coin circle, only smart people who go with the flow. I rely not on predicting tops and bottoms, but on recognizing simple signals of trends:
When the 30-day line crosses above the 120-day line, the probability of a bull market increases significantly; hold onto mainstream coins.
Moving averages in a bearish arrangement confirm a bear market; immediately pull back and do not make counter-trend trades.
Last year, Bitcoin peaked at $120,000, and many people shorted against the trend, resulting in a liquidation of 3.4 billion in 24 hours. Remember: The market is a big river; you need to be a boat going with the current, not a mantis blocking the car.
Three, the fewer the indicators, the higher the win rate.
I have tried dozens of indicators, and in the end, I found that precision is more useful than complexity. Now I only focus on two:
MACD golden cross + volume: bull market initiation signal, for example, when Bitcoin broke through $75,000 with volume this April, that was a typical entry point.
Volume shrinking + divergence: a trap to lure in buyers, for example, when some altcoins pump but trading volume shrinks, run quickly.
The essence of technical analysis is a probability game; multiple indicators resonating is more reliable. For example, when the Bollinger Bands narrow and coincide with a MACD golden cross, the win rate can increase by 30%.
Four, the three major pitfalls in the coin circle. Stepping into one can be fatal.
Long-term belief trap:
Apart from BTC/ETH, 99% of altcoins do not survive 3 years. I stubbornly held onto a certain 'star project' in 2018, which dropped from $10 to $0.1, ultimately going to zero. Now my allocation is: 70% BTC/ETH, and I take profits on altcoins immediately without attachment.
Leverage is an addiction, not a tool.
The root of contract liquidation is always too heavy a position. I have seen an old brother use 10x leverage to long Ethereum, earning 3 million in a day, only to go to zero the next day. Newbies should not touch leverage in the first two years; veterans should use a maximum of 5x and must have stop-losses.
The hot spots are the harvesting machines for retail investors.
When AI coins and Meme coins soar, the dealers are unloading. I only participate in two types of altcoins: those that have been flat for over 3 months at the bottom + a surge in on-chain active addresses. Missing out is not scary; stepping on a landmine is deadly.
Five, short-term vs long-term: The market determines the strategy.
Bull Market: Focus on BTC/ETH, paired with leading Layer 2s (like ARB); hold firmly as long as the moving averages do not break.
Bear Market: Only do 15-minute/1-hour oversold rebounds, earn 3%-5% and then run; cash is king.
Always keep 30% cash—this is your ammunition for bottom fishing and the confidence to not collapse mentally.
Lastly, let’s talk about something real.
The money in the coin circle has never been 'traded' out; it has been 'endured' out. In 9 years, I have experienced liquidation, empty positions, and have been 'cut' by 'masters'; surviving relies on three points:
Be timid when the market is frantic, and be bold when the market is desperate.
Stop-loss should be as natural as breathing; don’t hold positions, don’t rely on luck.
Treat compound interest as a belief; slow is fast.
If you are always losing money, stop and think: Is the market targeting you, or is discipline losing to human nature? Remember, the coin circle rewards not the genius, but the 'survivors'.
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more firsthand information and knowledge about the coin circle, precise points, and become your navigation in the coin circle; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
