According to River, the combined balances of spot ETFs and public companies have already exceeded the amount of bitcoin on centralized exchanges. This is an important shift: more and more coins are going into long-term storage and regulated structures, rather than remaining in circulation on exchanges. For the market, this means a gradual reduction in available supply.
What is happening with institutional buyers
Metaplanet has not made new Bitcoin purchases for over two months. The last transaction was on September 29, after which activity halted. It is important for newcomers to understand: the absence of purchases is not a reversal signal, but rather a reflection of expectations and a general pause in the market. Companies usually act cyclically and wait for moments with higher confidence.
Updated price levels from Glassnode at a price of $89,300
The indicators show a strong gap between short-term holders and the actual average market price:
Cost of short-term holders: 103,100
Active investors: about 88,000
True average market value: 81,400
Realized price (deep base): 56,400
For newcomers: such levels help understand where the 'average price' of different investor groups lies. Currently, the market is significantly below the entry price of short-term participants, which explains the increased pressure and nervousness. However, long-term levels remain significantly lower, keeping the market in a more neutral position.
Decrease in network activity
The number of active Bitcoin addresses continues to confidently decline since the launch of the ETF in January 2024. This is a signal of cooling and decreasing interest from retail users. Typically, such periods coincide with accumulation phases and a lack of strong trends.
Output
We are observing a transition to a calmer part of the cycle: blockchain activity is lower, short-term holders are under pressure, but larger entities and long-term investors continue to hold significant volumes of BTC. This often creates conditions for future stabilization and subsequent trending movement, when the market redistributes and sentiments begin to align.
