📌 (Beijing Time) December 11th, 3:30 AM, the Federal Reserve's press conference, Powell's 3 core speeches will directly affect market direction. 👇
❶ Is the interest rate cut threshold raised?
Currently, the market speculates on "hawkish easing," and Powell is likely to propose higher conditions for interest rate cuts.
After all, there are significant internal disagreements, fearing that excessive easing will cause prices to rebound.
Pay close attention to whether he mentions the "opposing views of the interest rate cut committee"; this is a key signal 🔑
❷ What does the interest rate cut rhythm look like in 2026?
Previously hinted at cutting only 25 basis points per year, and may pause in the first half of the year.
If the dot plot shows 1-2 interest rate cuts next year (less than the previous expectation of 3), the market will likely react, and we need to be alert to the signal of a slowing pace 📉
❸ Inflation + Employment Qualitative + Structural Adjustment Response
- Inflation: Likely still say "below the peak but above the 2% target, stickiness remains," tariff impact is not urgent.
- Employment: Mention "both supply and demand are slowing, it's balance not demand contraction," no need to panic about recession.
- Structural Adjustment: Likely to emphasize "data-driven decision-making, maintaining independence," stabilizing market confidence, will not delve deeply into impacts 💡
💡 Operation Reminder:
Morning volatility will amplify, don't blindly chase orders, wait for signals to clarify before taking action.
Focus on the first two points of statement, which will directly determine short-term capital direction, remember to set up risk protection ⚖️