DEBATE: IS BITCOIN STILL FOLLOWING THE 4-YEAR CYCLE OR HAS IT ENTERED A 'SUPER CYCLE'?
The group still believes that the 4-year cycle indicates the old model has not been broken, as BTC has increased more than 8 times from the bottom in 2022 (~15,000 USD). The lack of activity in altcoins is explained by the excessive supply of altcoins and the absence of a 'leading story' like ICOs in 2017 or NFTs in 2021. From this perspective, the market is still in the final stage of the bullish phase - preparing for a correction cycle.
The group argues that the 4-year cycle has changed and presents new arguments:
BTC reached an ATH before the 2024 halving, something that has never happened in history.
BTC prices are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows, rather than just supply and demand from halving.
Bernstein believes the market is entering a prolonged bullish cycle, driven by ETFs and institutional capital flows. Despite a correction of ~30%, capital withdrawals from ETFs remain below 5%, indicating strong long-term demand.
Bernstein sets a long-term target of 1 million USD for BTC by 2033.
JPMorgan also maintains an optimistic outlook, with a target of 170,000 USD in 6–12 months, and 200,000 USD around the year 2027.
In summary:
Bitcoin is showing signs of gradually detaching from the traditional 4-year cycle, transitioning to a long-term growth model based on institutional capital flows, ETFs, and the role of macroeconomic assets globally, rather than solely speculating on halving as before.
