Standard Chartered has reduced its long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC), warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate buying of Bitcoin, has likely come to an end.

The bank now believes that future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a shift that could slow the pace of increases in the coming years.

Bitcoin pullback: 'painful but normal'

In a new note, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the bank is delaying its timeline for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 and is lowering its end-of-year price targets from 2026 to 2029.

“Although the recent decline in Bitcoin's price has been swift, we believe it is within expected limits. However, it is unlikely that corporate purchases of Bitcoin will continue, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF purchases, which may be slower than previously expected, to drive price gains from here. We have reduced our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and postponed our forecast of $500,000 to 2030. It is not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” said Kendrick.

The recent price action of Bitcoin has unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered maintains that the sell-off aligns with historical patterns rather than indicating a structural decline.

Kendrick noted that BTC has fallen about 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline comparable to other corrections seen since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.

“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, while swift, falls within ‘normal’ expectations,” said Kendrick, adding that similar pullbacks have occurred over the past two years.

The moment of the peak has ignited renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin reaching its peak approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.

“The moment of the recent losses, the peak reached on October 6 was achieved 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, has fueled the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” added Kendrick.

However, Standard Chartered dismisses the idea that the traditional halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin's price behavior.

“We do not share the view that the halving cycle remains valid. Rather, we believe that long-term ETF buyers are a much more important price factor,” he noted.

Corporate purchases of BTC are losing momentum

The most concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive BTC accumulation by listed companies in digital asset treasury (DAT).

Kendrick said that valuations no longer justify further expansion by these companies, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.

“That said, the price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we believe that purchases by digital asset treasury (DAT) companies have likely ended, as valuations, measured by mNAVs, the commonly used valuation method for these companies, no longer support further expansion of Bitcoin DAT,” mentioned.

Although the bank does not expect a widespread sell-off by these companies, it also does not anticipate that they will sustain prices in the future.

“We expect a consolidation rather than a direct sell-off, but it is unlikely that purchases by DATs will provide further support,” said Kendrick.

ETF inflows will be a key support

With corporate Bitcoin purchases fading, Kendrick believes that the next phase of Bitcoin's price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.

“As a result, we believe that future price rallies of Bitcoin will effectively be driven only by one leg, ETF purchases,” commented.

This shift has led Standard Chartered to delay its more bullish projections.

“Therefore, we are lowering our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (down from 2028 previously),” emphasized Kendrick.

Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just over a longer timeframe.

“We still believe that this target is achievable, as portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight in Bitcoin. Access to investment and decision-making by investment committees takes time, but we expect it will eventually drive significant Bitcoin gains,” added.