$ETH Friends watching the 1-hour line should be quite anxious recently—ETH has crawled out of the pit at 2903 and is now stuck in the 3100-3150 range, grinding back and forth. However, I have observed an interesting phenomenon: this round of fluctuations may not be a bad thing.

First, let's talk about what has happened on-chain. BitMine directly dumped 131 million USD the day before yesterday, scooping up 41,000 ETH into their reserves. Looking at their historical records, this is already the 7th time in 5 months they have entered the market during a pullback; after the previous 6 operations, ETH averaged a 22% increase. The more critical detail is that 40% of this institution's holdings have already been locked into staking, and they still hold 800 million in cash reserves—this action doesn't seem like short-term speculation. Additionally, a whale address withdrew 2799 ETH (about 8.92 million USD) on December 4th; this kind of long-term holding address has increased its holdings by 12% in the past week, indicating that someone is quietly positioning themselves.

There are also movements on the technical side. The Fusaka upgrade was just completed three days ago, directly cutting Layer 2 transaction costs by 40%. Base and other L2s have announced that their throughput will double within two months—which is equivalent to installing a turbocharger on Ethereum; once the L2 ecosystem takes off, the demand for ETH will skyrocket.

Looking at the expectations, an ETH spot ETF is set to launch in mid-December, and compliance funds from traditional asset management giants like BlackRock are already waiting in the wings. When these factors are combined, the current narrow fluctuations may be the last window for institutions to leave room for retail investors.

I hope this short sell wave can realize profits, with a take profit at 3300 😂