Six aircraft carriers gather in East Asia, turning the area around Japan into the center of a storm, with a situation as complex as the Cold War.
Recently, the waters of the Western Pacific have not been peaceful. The originally stable situation has become tense due to the actions of China's Liaoning carrier group. Now, six large carrier or amphibious groups from various powers are active in this area, along with two recently modified but not yet combat-ready light aircraft carriers from Japan eyeing the situation. Such a scene has been rare since the end of the Cold War. First, let's talk about the military deployment from the United States. The U.S. Navy has sent three groups this time, with the strongest being the USS Washington carrier strike group. This aircraft carrier had been stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, for seven years since 2008, before returning to the U.S. for a mid-term overhaul, during which it also replaced its nuclear reactor fuel; its mission was then handed over to the USS Reagan.
By May of last year, the USS Reagan also needed maintenance, so the USS Washington returned to Yokosuka, arriving in November last year and undergoing maintenance. In June this year, the USS Washington completed maintenance and set out from Tokyo Bay, remaining active at sea for half a year. Previously, the USS Nimitz had exited the South China Sea after losing two carrier-based aircraft, and the USS Washington briefly entered the South China Sea to handle subsequent matters. On December 3rd, with the recovery results of the carrier-based aircraft still unclear, it made a brief stop in Guam before heading north. By December 7th, it appeared in waters south of Japan, and given the current situation, it is highly likely to be returning to the shipyard. Among the three groups of the U.S., the most sensitive position but with the lowest combat capability is the USS Tripoli amphibious readiness group.
This is the second ship of the America-class amphibious assault ship, which departed from the U.S. West Coast this May, carrying a dock landing ship and an amphibious transport ship, cooperating with the F-35B squadron already stationed in Japan, to replace the USS America in East Asia. After the USS Washington withdrew from the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy urgently dispatched the USS Tripoli to fill the gap. However, facing China's years of development of an anti-carrier system, this amphibious assault ship, which only carries a small number of F-35B and lacks early warning aircraft support, has limited deterrent capability and cannot change the current situation. Moreover, the USS Lincoln, which is to truly replace the USS Nimitz, is currently crossing the Pacific and is expected to arrive in the Western Pacific in a few days. Now, let's look at the movements of the Chinese Navy. The first to act was the Shandong, a relatively new aircraft carrier that had an unclear direction after the Fujian carrier was commissioned, only to be confirmed to have left its berth a few days ago.
Entering the Western Pacific from the South China Sea usually involves passing through the Bashi Channel. The Philippines, with U.S. support in recent years, has arranged aerial surveillance forces on the southern coast of the strait and even released information about the Shandong crossing the strait earlier this year. However, the Philippines' nighttime surveillance capabilities are very poor, and at the end of May this year, when the Shandong crossed the Bashi Channel, it successfully evaded their surveillance. Given that the Shandong has been at sea for several days, it is now highly likely to have entered the Western Pacific and may surface at any time. There is also the Hainan carrier group, which, equipped with 055-class destroyers, has drawn strong reactions from Australia and garnered a lot of attention. However, unless this fleet heads north immediately, it will soon be out of the core area of this multi-party confrontation. Nevertheless, the presence of this amphibious group also reaffirms that the U.S. Navy's blue-water combat power is already stretched thin, unable to fulfill its promise to protect Australia.
Just like when the 055-class destroyers circled Australia, the Australian Navy's strength is weak and unable to counter, and the U.S. can only stand by, a scene that is likely to occur again. The most noteworthy is still the Liaoning carrier group, which is equipped with the conventional 055-class destroyers, 052D-class destroyers, and 054A-class frigates, and the key lies in its route. Since 2016, the Liaoning's southward passage through the Miyako Strait and subsequent training in the Western Pacific has become routine. But this time is different; after passing through the waterway, the Liaoning headed directly east, making it the closest it has ever been to Japan's main island, a move that has further heightened tensions. Japan's response is also worth noting. After observing the Liaoning's actions, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has completely abandoned the restrictions on aircraft carrier development and has clarified plans to modify two high-speed helicopter carriers to carry F-35B.
After several years of preparation, the two Izumo-class helicopter carriers have now completed modifications and have been tested for takeoffs and landings with the U.S. Marine Corps' F-35B. However, due to insufficient production capacity of the F-35B, they will have to wait two more years for delivery, and it is estimated that combat capability will not be formed until after 2027. The current situation is that two 100,000-ton nuclear-powered catapult aircraft carriers, two 60,000-ton ski-jump carriers, and two 40,000-ton amphibious assault ships are all present in the East Asian waters, which truly reflects the intense confrontation among various parties. Moreover, if we consider that in the next two to three years, there will be an additional 80,000-ton electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, a 40,000-ton unmanned aircraft carrier, and Japan's two 20,000-ton light aircraft carriers joining, the situation in this sea area will only become more complex and intense.
