📊 CPI Watch: Markets on Edge Ahead of the Inflation Print
All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI release — a single data point that can swing global markets in minutes. The last CPI print came in at ~3.1% YoY, with Core CPI near 4.0%, showing inflation cooling but not yet defeated. This next release matters because it directly shapes Fed rate-cut expectations.
Markets are currently pricing in the first Fed cut around mid-year, but that confidence is fragile. If headline CPI drops below 3.0% and core shows month-on-month cooling (≤ 0.2% MoM), risk assets could breathe easy. Equities and crypto would likely rally on relief and renewed liquidity hopes 📈.
However, a hotter-than-expected number revives fear. Sticky inflation means rates stay higher for longer, dollar strength returns, and risk assets feel the pressure. That moment of hesitation — that brief silence on the charts — is fear doing its job 😶🌫️.
This CPI isn’t just data. It’s emotion, positioning, and policy colliding in real time. Stay focused, manage risk, and remember: volatility creates opportunity for those who are prepared 🎯
