Originally, everyone was waiting for the Federal Reserve's "interest rate cut gift," but then a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Japan, causing a direct reset of the global monetary chessboard. The market was initially worried about the "hawkish trap," but it is being quietly overturned by another force—the real liquidity undercurrent is beginning to converge on the crypto market.
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An interest rate cut of 87% is not "poison," but rather a "deeper layout."
The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is approaching 87.4%. On the surface, it appears to be a "cautious rate cut," but smart money has already sensed a deeper logic:
This time it is not the "end of easing," but rather a "necessary preparation before the start of easing."
U.S. data is tangled in the short term, but the trend is clear:
• Employment slowdown
• Consumption cools.
• Inflation marginally retreats.
• China and the U.S. and global economies are synchronously sliding into low-speed zones.
What does this mean?
👉 The more the Federal Reserve talks tough, the more it will need to ease in the future.
👉 'Hawkish rate cuts' are instead a prelude to the next round of liquidity expansion.
Historical experience:
Verbal hawkishness from the Federal Reserve + gradual rate cuts = the strongest phase for asset prices.
The market is not afraid of 'harsh words'; it fears 'no rate cuts'. Now that rate cuts are confirmed, what's left is just a matter of timing.
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Japan's strong earthquake: not bad news, but a liquidity accelerator.
After the earthquake, the yen surged past 155.97 in an instant, and the market's first reaction was:
'The interest rate hike is done!'
But what you need to see is another layer of meaning:
✔ Japan's rate hike delay = the world's largest arbitrage capital chain continues to expand outward.
✔ The pressure of global capital returning to Japan decreases = the nemesis of the stock and crypto markets is delayed.
✔ The Japanese government will inevitably make large-scale fiscal investments = global liquidity will strengthen, not tighten.
In a nutshell:
Japan's unexpected move has instead extended the global easing window.
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What does it mean for global central banks to enter 'silent mode'?
Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, the UK, and the European Central Bank have all remained cautiously inactive this week.
Why?
Because the global economy is synchronously entering a phase of 'who eases first'.
The less central banks talk, the more it indicates —
Everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve to take the first step, and then the floodgates will open.
This means for the crypto market:
✔ The funding situation is subtly warming.
✔ Institutions have laid out their plans in advance.
✔ Each dip of ETFs and whales will quietly absorb inventory.
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📈 Cryptocurrency rise guide: How to navigate through the fog of 'hawkish rate cuts'?
Short-term: Big fluctuations ≠ big risks, but rather 'big opportunities'
If Powell's tone is hawkish:
• BTC 90,000
• ETH 3800
This will indeed become a key point for the bullish and bearish battles.
But remember:
Sharp drop = Golden pit.
Flash crash = Bottom fishing signal
Panic = Institutions' accumulation window
This is not the top; it's a washout before the main upward wave.
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Medium term: The liquidity main line hasn't changed; the bull market is only delayed, not canceled.
The Federal Reserve will not change its major direction because of one meeting.
ETF inflows continue, whales keep accumulating, and the U.S. fiscal deficit worsens —
All medium-term factors point in one direction:
👉 Crypto assets remain the most attractive risk assets in the world.
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Strategy: Different players, one optimal solution.
📌 Spot traders — Buckle up, don't get thrown off the car.
No matter how big the short-term fluctuations are, they won't change the medium-term rising logic.
📌 Traders — Reduce leverage, wait for direction.
Don't bet on news; bet on trends.
Once the trend is set, it's a wave to the end.
📌 Regular investors — Get your bullets ready.
A crash is a gift.
Panic is the value range.
Every panic lays the groundwork for the next rally.
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⭐ Conclusion:
所谓“鹰派降息”，不是毒药，而是行情真正的加速器。
The policy delays triggered by the earthquake in Japan are not necessarily bad, but rather an extra bonus for the crypto market.
There is only one real market rule:
👉 Liquidity may be late, but it will never be absent.
The harsher the current fluctuation, the stronger the subsequent rise.$AT
