The expected impact of the rate cut at the beginning of next year
The reality is that the scenarios in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting involve a high likelihood: Powell may announce a 25BP rate cut, but he emphasizes that the road ahead is not smooth, indicating that rate cuts will slow down in 2025 (hawks). Regarding the repurchase/cessation of QT in T-Bills, he stated that he is likely to indicate that the time is not yet right. What does this mean for our future? The United States and cryptocurrency markets: The United States may face cyclical pressures on 'buying the expectations, selling the facts' in the short term, especially if the hawks have lowered rates. As long as inflation does not spiral out of control, interest rates will decrease to protect employment; however, in light of fiscal stimulus and inflation stickiness, the Federal Reserve must remain strong and slow down interest rate cuts next year. The short term is relative and the short term is the raise. After that, terminal adjustments turn into downward concession settlements, with a high likelihood of a sharp decline and slight deviation from market expectations.
