Is the Taiwan-Japan joint attack merely talk? 700 aircraft are vulnerable; the PLA has already secured victory.
As mentioned earlier, Japan has been doused with cold water by the United States regarding the Taiwan issue, yet it remains undeterred, even collaborating with 'Taiwan independence' forces to challenge the PLA. Recently, the Global Times revealed signs of military collusion between Taiwan and Japan. Japan seeks to use the 'Taiwan card' to achieve constitutional amendments and military expansion, while the Taiwan authorities want to pull Japan in as a 'backer.' However, this so-called 'joint attack' is essentially a case of an ant trying to stop a chariot. Let's do some calculations: how much can Taiwan and Japan jointly muster?
In terms of aerial power, Taiwan has 140 F-16V aircraft, dozens of Mirage 2000, and 100 IDF fighters. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force has 50 F-35, fewer than 200 F-15J, and fewer than 100 F-2, totaling nearly 700 aircraft. While the numbers may look impressive, their quality is extremely low. The only truly advanced ones are about 200 F-35 and F-16V; the rest are early-generation fourth-generation aircraft. Not to mention, they would struggle against the J-10C, and even the J-11B would be a tough match. Moreover, Japan's F-35B squadron hasn't yet formed complete combat readiness and relies on U.S. bases for simulated landing training. It won't be until 2030 that they can train independently, and currently, they're in a 'half-damaged state.' Naval power is even less comparable. Taiwan's 'Hai Kun' submarine is a joke; not only does it lack anchor systems, but 2 out of 6 diesel engines are also broken, making it impossible for actual combat deployment. The surface fleet consists of only 4 Kidd-class destroyers, which perform worse than the upgraded modern-class.
While the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force appears strong, with 8 Aegis destroyers, 20 general destroyers, and over 20 conventional submarines, it has a fatal weakness—poor anti-ship capability. For a long time, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has been the 'mine-clearing anti-submarine division' of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, excelling in anti-submarine mine clearing but inferior to even India in anti-ship capabilities. They still use subsonic Harpoon missiles with a range of 200 kilometers, comparable to the YJ-83 used by PLA frigates. On the other hand, the PLA has long since popularized the supersonic YJ-12 missile and the subsonic YJ-18 missile, along with the hypersonic YJ-17 and YJ-19 missiles, which have far superior power and range. It's like comparing artillery shells to grenades. As for land power, Taiwan's army is equipped with outdated gear, while Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force, although having a 3,000-strong Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade equipped with AAV7 amphibious assault vehicles and V-22 Ospreys, is essentially 'good at defense but poor at offense.'
The PLA's drones and anti-tank missiles have already achieved 'large quantity for sufficiency.' Whether facing M1A2 or Type 10 tanks, once air and sea control is lost, they become 'moving targets' after landing and cannot influence the battle situation at all. More critically, Taiwan and Japan lack even basic coordination capability. They have no formal security dialogue mechanism and have never conducted large-scale joint military exercises. When it comes to actual combat, they might not even be able to communicate, and the so-called 'joint attack' would end up being each fighting their own battle, ultimately being defeated by the PLA one by one. Japan itself is well aware that it can at most restrain forces in one theater and cannot breach the PLA's defensive lines, let alone stop the recovery of Taiwan.
Additionally, an important backdrop is that Japan has been making deployments in the southwest direction this year, establishing the 8th Coastal Missile Regiment, forming maritime transport groups, and expanding its garrison in Okinawa. However, these deployments are scattered and lack coordination, making them completely vulnerable to the PLA's systematic warfare. Even the U.S. does not support high-profile actions by Takashima Sato; these two forces, reliant on the U.S., cannot make a significant impact even if they join hands. Ultimately, Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, a fact recognized by the international community. Any attempts to split the country or any interference by external forces will be met with resolute countermeasures by the PLA.
Taiwan and Japan's collusion to challenge China's core interests will only lead to the outcome of 'losing the chicken and losing the rice.' Each exercise and distant deployment by the PLA serves to fortify the defense of national sovereignty and territorial integrity; this is something no one can shake.
