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Tonight's interest rate cut may be a “hawkish trap”! The brutal truth behind the 90% probability🔥
Don't celebrate too early—do you think an interest rate cut is a signal for a party? Wrong, this time it might be a pit dug for you by the Federal Reserve!
The market has already gone crazy betting: CME data shows the probability of a rate cut in December soaring to nearly 90%, almost a sure thing. But the truth is, this rate cut is not a gift; it feels more like a “sugar-coated poison.” Why? Because the Federal Reserve is likely to be “blindly cutting” this time!
📉 Key data (December employment, CPI) won’t be released until January, meaning tonight's decision is purely based on “gut feeling.” What if January's data contradicts it—inflation rebounds, the economy remains hot—then the Federal Reserve might immediately change its stance: only cut this once, and then hold firm for a year and a half!
This is the real “hawkish trap”:
✅ Superficially dovish (rate cut), but actually tightening (may remain inactive afterwards)
✅ Powell's position is unstable, the new chairman could completely change the pace
✅ Internal opinions are divided, the dot plot is a mess, and the future path is full of fog
For the market, the benefits of a rate cut have long been exhausted, and every step forward is a minefield:
· Strong economy → inflation rebounds → stops cutting rates
· Weak economy → recession panic → capital fleeing
Tonight's focus is not really on “cutting or not,” but on how Powell will make his case. Is he hinting “just this once, don’t think too much,” or is he opening the door for continuous rate cuts?
History tells us: sudden rate cuts in December are often because the economy really can’t hold up anymore.
So don’t just get carried away, be careful after dawn—this is just the beginning of a tough battle.
🔥🔥🔥Friends, prepare your chips, once the results come out, you can appropriately layout a little small💕milk💕dog, believe you won’t be disappointed👍👍👍
Do you think this rate cut is a “real market rescue” or a “fake move”?
Betting on “bullish celebration” or “good news has been exhausted”? Let’s guess directly in the comments!
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