First, context of what to expect from the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decision and how that may impact, especially in crypto.
📅 Context: what is happening before the next FOMC announcement
The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be on the days 9 and 10 of December 2025, with a decision on the expected reference rate (“federal funds rate”) at the close.
After two cuts this year — in September and October — the market consensus points to a third consecutive cut, of 25 basis points. That decision would bring the rate to an estimated range of 3.5%–3.75%.
Various analyses suggest a high probability (70%–90%) that the cut will be applied, although with divided votes within the committee: there are members warning of inflation risks.
At the same time, the Fed will communicate its economic projections for 2026 — so beyond the specific rate, the guidance towards the future will be key.
🔮 Expected Scenario
The scenario with the highest probability: the Fed will cut 25 bps and bring the rate to ~3.5-3.75%, but will emphasize caution. Some reasons:
The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down: a somewhat softer labor market, moderate demand, inflation still under control (at least in some measurements). That pushes towards stimulus.
But inflation has not disappeared — especially in services — so within the Fed there is resistance to an aggressive cycle of cuts: several members might vote against.
That’s why the most likely outcome is a cut, accompanied by cautious guidance: gradual decreases, conditional on economic data, without immediate commitment to an additional 1-2% cut.
📈 What would it mean for crypto (and risk/opportunity) if the expected happens
If the base scenario materializes:
Favorable environment for crypto and risk assets: a lower rate implies a lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets (like cryptocurrencies), which can attract capital towards BTC, altcoins, etc.
Weakened dollar or downward pressure on USD: a less attractive dollar can strengthen crypto — especially for investors outside the U.S. who use stablecoins or buy with other currencies.
Increase in volatility: right after the announcement there could be spikes in volatility — speculative trading — which can create opportunities for traders (but also risks).
Renewed interest in “risk-on assets”: stocks, tech, cryptos, could benefit if investors seek returns against low yields on bonds.
On the other hand, if the “cautious/hawkish” scenario wins — where the Fed decides to maintain the rate or sends restrictive signals — the impact could be opposite: downward pressure on crypto, strengthening of the dollar, withdrawal of global risk.
✅ What to watch closely right now (and until it is announced)
If you are analyzing crypto or other assets, it is advisable to follow:
Fed statement + “dot plot” — not just the rate, but what they say about their path. That determines expectations.
Subsequent comments (press conference of the Fed chair) — many times the “tone” matters more than the number.
Futures/derivatives market/dollar — how it is pricing (or not) the cut; anticipations often generate movements before the announcement.
Reaction of BTC, altcoins, and macro assets (stocks, gold, bonds) — to see correlations, capital flows, risk appetite; this helps understand overall sentiment.
Global economic context: inflation, employment, recent macroeconomic data — because the Fed may react if there are surprises upwards in inflation or economic weakness.
