🚨 MARKETS ON HIGH ALERT — DECEMBER RATE CUT ALMOST LOCKED IN
Traders are now pricing in an 88–89% chance of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut, signaling near-certainty that the Fed will ease policy again in December. If delivered, this would push the federal funds rate down to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third cut of 2025.
The shift comes as the U.S. labor market continues to cool, even while inflation holds above the Fed’s 2% target — a mixed backdrop that’s keeping investors on edge.
📊 Market Technicals
The S&P 500 sits less than 1% from all-time highs, still trending strongly above support.
But a bearish RSI divergence is flashing, hinting that momentum could be losing steam.
Market breadth remains tight, showing hesitation beneath the surface.
Key levels: Resistance near recent highs, support at 6800, and the 50-day MA around 6750.
🛑 Data Uncertainty Rising The ongoing government shutdown has delayed critical inflation and employment reports, leaving the Fed to make its next move with limited visibility. At the same time, the central bank is nearing the end of its balance-sheet runoff, another tightening factor markets are watching closely.
🔥 What’s Next? With technical signals mixed and macro data blurred, traders are bracing for heightened volatility across stocks and crypto.
A confirmed cut could add fuel to risk assets, while any hint of hesitation from the Fed might spark a quick pullback.
