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WHAT IF THE REAL ALTSEASON STARTS FROM JAN 2026? Look at this chart first. OTHERS dominance chart shows where altcoins usually bottom and where big alt cycles start. Right now, OTHERS dominance is sitting very close to the same base zone where it bottomed in the past: - In 2017 before the big altcoin rum. - In 2020 before the 2021 alt season. MACD is flattening and RSI is at historical bottom zone, similar setups in the past appeared before multi-year expansions in alt dominance. This alone suggests altcoins are much closer to a bottom than a top. Now let’s connect this with history. In September 2019, the Fed clearly said it would end QT. Around the same time: • OTHERS dominance bottomed • In October 2019, the Fed started buying $60B per month in T-bills • By March 2020, this slowly turned into full QE From that point: - Altcoins kept trending - The cycle topped only in early 2022, when the Fed again hinted tightening Now look at the last 4 years. Altcoins kept falling or staying weak, even though Bitcoin went up strongly from its bottom. The reason was simple: - The Fed was draining liquidity - Liquidity drain always hurts altcoins the most But this phase is changing again. What’s different now? • The Fed has already started injecting liquidity again. • T-bill buying starts now, around $40B per month. • This is not full QE yet, but liquidity support has clearly begun. Markets are also looking ahead. Why? Because, the market is expecting major liquidity catalysts. • Corporate tax cuts are being discussed, which improves earnings and boost stock prices • Plans like a $2,000 dividend check are being talked about, another liquidity event • A new Fed Chair is expected, and markets see a more growth-focused approach Even on rate cuts: The dot plot shows only 1-2 cuts But remember, Powell indirectly said no rate cuts for December but it happened anyway. That happened because: - The economy is not strong - If the economy was healthy, the Fed would not be buying T-bills at all This matters a lot for altcoins.

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🚨THE REASON BEHIND TODAY'S DUMP. The Bank of Japan is set to hike rates next week on Dec 19th. It's also expected that the BOJ will do more rate hikes in 2026. Last time Japan raised rates, Bitcoin and crypto market dumped really hard. So the market is now already pricing in the negative news. $BTC

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$BTC From a liquidity perspective, the main area to watch remains $97K-$98K. But price has been rejected from the $94K area for several weeks now. Once that breakout above $94K holds, I think the move from there will be pretty shift. But until that happens, it's good to just be patient and not get chopped up with all these bart moves in this range.

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Binance is buying again. Coinbase is selling again. Something has changed after CZ said that we might see a supercycle.

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SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (12/10/2025): 1. Fed cuts rates by 25 bps in 3rd rate cut of 2025 2. Fed will consider "extend and timing" of additional adjustments 3. Fed will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th 4. Fed will buy $40 billion of US Treasury bills in 30 days 5. FOMC members Schmid and Goolsbee dissent in favor of no change 6. Fed signals rate cuts may be done for now Fed Chair Powell may be halting rate cuts again.

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