The probability of a rate cut tonight has been set at 88%, with almost no suspense. Last night's prices reflected this. However, it is important to note that there are almost no expectations for a rate cut in January, and if it does happen, we may have to wait until March for it. The gap in between is quite risky, leaving the bears with a three-month period to manipulate the market.
If this rate cut is again hawkish, there is a high probability of a pullback, especially since there are no expectations for a rate cut in January.
The market is quite challenging now, liquidity is tightening, and it is entirely relying on expectations of rate cuts. If any month pauses rate cuts, isn't it likely that we will face a sharp decline that month? This would then force the Federal Reserve into QE and continuing rate cuts.
Last night, BTC was so strong but did not break through 95000. It seems that tonight's outcome is more likely to be bad than good, so everyone should be careful. $BTC
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