Bitcoin, gold, and silver experienced a surprising strengthening on Tuesday, just before a possible new Fed rate cut.
The pioneering cryptocurrency and two safe-haven commodities, gold and silver, may face volatility around the Fed's interest rate decision, even though the price of XAG rose above $60.00/ounce for the first time in history, representing a +108% increase in 2025.
Top BTC, XAU, and XAG price forecasts before the Fed cut
Attention is focused on the Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow and the subsequent press conference by Jerome Powell. This is one of the week's most important macroeconomic events for both Bitcoin and safe-haven commodities.
CME FedWatch Tool data shows that rate speculators see an 87.6% probability of a Fed rate cut.
The Fed's rate cut is generally positive for Bitcoin, as it increases liquidity in the financial markets. Gold typically benefits from rate cuts the fastest and most clearly, while silver often lags initially but outperforms gold's price development during strong reflationary movements. For this reason, silver price movements are often severe after sharp cuts when the trend strengthens.
Gold reacts first and most predictably.
Bitcoin benefits as liquidity increases.
Silver often becomes the strongest performer in the final phase.
However, based on current pricing, the markets have already priced in the event, and traders have bypassed the interest rate cut due to nearly certain probabilities.
Bitcoin targets $100,000.00 before the Fed's interest rate decision.
Bitcoin's price is currently trending upwards and consolidating in an ascending parallel channel after bottoming at $80,600 on November 21. As long as the price remains in this technical formation, the possibility of additional upside remains.
The RSI indicator shows the sentiment strengthening, which could drive BTC higher. Its position above the 50 threshold indicates that buyers are active, but the situation can still change, as this level could allow for bearish movements.
Bitcoin's price immediately faces resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $97,015, which is a barrier on BTC's path towards the significant Fibonacci level of 61.8% – $98,018.
This would be an important point of connection for late bulls: if Bitcoin's price exceeds this level with strong volume, it signals a strengthening trend. In this case, the pioneering cryptocurrency could rise to $103,399, defined by the 50% midpoint level.
In an extremely strong bullish scenario, BTC could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level, indicating a strong price trend.
On the other hand, if the 61.8% Fibonacci level holds as resistance, it could reverse the direction downwards.
The activation of sellers at current levels could lead to the 78.6% Fibonacci level no longer acting as support, causing BTC to drop from the ascending parallel channel.
In such a situation, the price of the pioneering cryptocurrency could drop to a support level of $80,600. This would mean nearly a 15% dip from the current price level.
Gold may be in the Stage A classic reload zone.
The price of gold may drop towards the $4,199 lows and potentially break the rising support trend before turning upwards. Based on the RSI indicator, the sentiment is waning, so the price of XAU is at risk of a correction.
However, as long as the RSI remains above the 50 threshold and strong support is provided by the 50- and 100-day EMA convergence at the levels of $4,202 and $4,203, price development can continue to rise.
The critical support level is between $4,178 and $4,192. If this area holds, the upward structure remains intact.
At the same time, the main resistance is at $4,241 – a clear rise above this supply level is likely to accelerate the uptrend.
In such a situation, the target would be $4,260, or in a very strong rise, $4,300 before potentially returning to the all-time high (ATH) of $4,381.
The current price level could thus be a classic retracement zone, where every dip offers late bulls a buying opportunity.
Silver has risen 6 times more than the S&P 500 this year.
The price of silver is experiencing one of the strongest price rallies in stock market history, rising six times more than the S&P 500's year-to-date increase. The XAG/USD price is now on track for the most significant 12-month rise since 1979.
After the new all-time high level of $60,794, silver is in a price-seeking mode, and there is still upside potential.
In the below 15-minute chart, the XAG/USD price shows a clear bullish continuation breakout. The price of silver has clearly exceeded the previous trading range peak near $58.83 and accelerated in the price search, confirming the shift from consolidation to growth.
All essential EMAs (50/100/200) are now in a bullish formation and have turned upwards, indicating strong short-term direction and trend strength.
The sentiment supports the rise. An RSI above 73 indicates strong buying power. However, this RSI value also warns of short-term overbought conditions and the risk of a slight correction or consolidation before the rise continues.
Considering the structure, the previous resistance level of $58.80–59.00 now acts as the first support level, while the next psychological and technical target is around $61.00–61.50.
As long as the price of silver stays above the rising 50 EMA (red), the outlook remains buy-the-dip style. The downside risk increases only if the price permanently falls below the $59.00 threshold again.
