BlockBeats News, December 10. This week, the Federal Reserve's final interest rate decision meeting of the year is approaching. The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday at 3:00 AM (UTC+8), and at 3:30 AM (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. According to CME FedWatch, there is an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, making a rate cut tonight almost certain. However, the biggest highlight of the Fed this week is not about the rate cut. The focus will be on whether there will be a "new liquidity injection" into the market and how the "politicized" disagreements among Fed officials will reshape the 2026 monetary policy direction.The market is watching whether the Fed will send a "balance sheet expansion signal" after the interest rate decision. After quietly ending balance sheet reduction, how the Fed manages its massive balance sheet and whether it will inject new liquidity into the market have become key issues. The global rate strategy team at Bank of America stated last Friday that they expect the Fed to announce this week that starting in January, they will purchase Treasury securities with maturities of one year or less at a pace of $45 billion per month as part of "reserve management operations."This week's Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial meetings in recent years, more like a "political stress test." The policymakers' disagreements on the prospect of a rate cut will reshape the US monetary policy direction in 2026. Of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 5 members are opposed to or skeptical of further easing of monetary policy, while 3 members of the Board support a rate cut, further strengthening the narrative in the market that the Fed is becoming increasingly politicized. Since 2019, the Federal Reserve's policy committee has never seen three or more dissenting votes in a single meeting, a situation that has only occurred nine times since 1990.
