12.10 BTC Morning Market Analysis
I. Logical Support
1. Macroeconomic Event Pre-Game: The Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision will be announced tonight, and the market is getting restless in advance. The current price level of 92100 is in the middle of the game between "interest rate cut expectation pricing" and "cautious before the decision", with a high probability of maintaining high volatility.
2. Technical Divergence: The daily line once broke through the strong resistance at 94000 and then pulled back. Currently, it is supported by the EMA moving average convergence area (90300-90400), but the hourly candlestick is suppressed by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the MACD bearish momentum has not been fully released, forming a fluctuation pattern of "support below, pressure above".
3. Capital Signal Warning: There was a strong liquidation of 200 million USD in long positions in the early morning. Although the whales have made arrangements, ETF inflows are weak, and there is a lack of sustained upward capital momentum in the short term, with the pullback demand not fully digested.
II. Trend Qualification
Short-term fluctuations are slightly bearish, with no clear trending market: As of 9:40 AM, BTC has not stabilized above the key resistance level of 92500, and is showing a weak fluctuation structure of "high points gradually moving down". The bullish momentum at the hourly level is weakening, and it is difficult to break the fluctuation range before the Federal Reserve's decision, with a higher probability of testing support than breaking upward.
III. Practical Strategy
Long
- Entry: 91000-91500 | Stop Loss: Below 90300 | Target: 92300-92500
Short
- Entry: 92500-92800 | Stop Loss: Above 93000 | Target: 91200-91500
