KaiZXBT
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Bullish
One key headwind for crypto could finally shift in 2026.
The Treasury General Account (TGA) has been quietly draining liquidity all year. Originally, the Treasury targeted an $850B refill, but the balance has surged to nearly $1 trillion. This overshoot came from precautionary issuance, shutdown fears, and administrative timing all coming together at once.
A TGA spike acts as a liquidity vacuum. Through most of 2025, this dynamic restrained risk assets even while the broader economy held up.
Looking into 2026, the TGA should normalize lower. Treasury will need to draw the balance back toward its stated operating range to avoid unnecessary fiscal drag. Instead of vacuuming liquidity out, it pushes dollars back into the system.
This along with the end of QT could signal a different macro setup than markets have lived with for the past two years.
The fiscal liquidity injection phase could be next.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The Treasury General Account (TGA) has been quietly draining liquidity all year. Originally, the Treasury targeted an $850B refill, but the balance has surged to nearly $1 trillion. This overshoot came from precautionary issuance, shutdown fears, and administrative timing all coming together at once.
A TGA spike acts as a liquidity vacuum. Through most of 2025, this dynamic restrained risk assets even while the broader economy held up.
Looking into 2026, the TGA should normalize lower. Treasury will need to draw the balance back toward its stated operating range to avoid unnecessary fiscal drag. Instead of vacuuming liquidity out, it pushes dollars back into the system.
This along with the end of QT could signal a different macro setup than markets have lived with for the past two years.
The fiscal liquidity injection phase could be next.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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