12.10 Briefing

BTC Price: Around 92500

Technical Analysis:

Last night, Trump once again publicly expressed support for crypto assets, which ignited market sentiment. BTC immediately surged from 92,000 to 94,000 in a strong response. However, the positive news mainly remains at the “verbal” level, and this morning it naturally started to give back, now stabilizing in the range of 92,500. In the short term, it is being pressed by MA25, but the MA99 below is very stable, and the bullish structure is intact. Overall, this is a typical case of “policy expectation rally + morning digestion of good news”: sentiment has been ignited, but capital has not gone out of control, and the likelihood is that the day will mainly see fluctuations in the high range.

Hot News:

1. Hassett: The Federal Reserve has ample room for significant rate cuts

Hassett's statement is equivalent to giving the market a shot of confidence: “Don’t worry, easing is on the way.” If the Federal Reserve really has room for significant rate cuts, it means liquidity will become abundant again, and risk assets will benefit, especially for high-volatility assets (technology, crypto) which have a clear positive expectation.

However, that being said, the actual rate cut magnitude still depends on whether inflation and employment data can continue to cooperate. It now feels more like a windfall; sentiment is positive, but the implementation still needs to be verified.

2. The Hong Kong government plans to automatically exchange tax-related information on crypto asset transactions with cooperating tax jurisdictions starting in 2028

This step indicates that Hong Kong is incorporating crypto assets into the international tax transparency and compliance system, rather than allowing their “gray” existence. For investors and institutions, this means that anonymity will decrease, tax scrutiny may become stricter, and the risk of tax evasion increases — in the long run, it may compress the space for “dark pool arbitrage/anonymity trading.” However, for large compliant institutions and legitimate exchanges, this is beneficial for enhancing industry credibility and overall transparency, contributing to the development of a more mature and regulated crypto asset ecosystem.