Tonight the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates! But the real big thunder in the crypto world is 'her'?
At three in the morning, the moment Powell presses the interest rate cut button, the Federal Reserve's century-old firewall has cracked open the first seam under political pressure.
The market is focused on a 89.6% probability of a rate cut, but the real ticking time bomb is the unprecedented internal division within the Federal Reserve. Among the 12 voting committee members, 5 are expected to oppose the rate cut, marking the first public confrontation since 2019. When central bank decisions are entangled in politics, how much is their promise really worth?
What the market is really betting on is balance sheet expansion. The banking system's reserves have fallen below the $3 trillion red line, and American banks predict that the Federal Reserve may announce a monthly bond purchase of $45 billion starting in January next year. On one hand, cutting interest rates, and on the other, possibly being forced to inject liquidity, this situation is inherently contradictory.
Even stranger is the phenomenon of reverse interest rates: the Federal Reserve cuts rates, yet the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rises instead of falling. The bond market is voting with its feet, fundamentally disbelieving the script of 'debt relief through interest rate cuts.'
The core of this storm lies in 2026. Powell's term will end, and the Trump team is already eyeing the position. They are attempting to fire the board members appointed by Biden and install their own people—the independence of the Federal Reserve is being publicly dismantled.
For the crypto world, this is both a warning and a revelation. When the credit of the most core credit institution begins to collapse, the value of the decentralized narrative becomes self-evident. The politicized Federal Reserve, with its policy swings, will elevate all asset volatility, but it may also force some funds seeking absolute 'shelter' to reevaluate the crypto world.
The real risk is never just one meeting. When the foundation supporting global finance begins to loosen, the most dangerous are often those who do not see the cracks, but rather those who continue to pretend that the foundation is solid. Historical turning points often disguise themselves as ordinary trading days; after tonight, your perspective on assets should change.
The night of interest rate cuts is coming, are you ready?
The heavenly opportunity will be laid out in advance in the village, those who recognize the heavenly machine, there is someone in the chat room!
