Dear friends, do you remember $MERL ? Recently, it has gained popularity again.

In the past few weeks, $MERL has faced significant selling pressure three times while attempting to break through the $0.5 range. What do you think its chances are?

I used professional AI market analysis tools to summarize from a technical perspective for those following @MerlinLayer2:

📊 Fundamental Overview

Price: $0.342

Circulating Market Cap: $360 million | FDV: $718 million

Circulation Rate: 50%~52%

Positioning: Bitcoin ZK-Rollup L2, EVM compatible

🔴 Short-term Risks (1-4 weeks)

1️⃣ Technicals are bearish: The price is below all key moving averages, RSI is not oversold, and MACD continues to show a bearish trend, indicating continued downward pressure.

2️⃣ Unlocking selling pressure: On December 19, 36.14 million $MERL (accounting for 1.72% of the supply) will be unlocked, potentially increasing selling pressure.

3️⃣ Key support test: Strong support is at $0.3345–0.3348. If broken, it may trigger a $660K long position liquidation, accelerating the decline.

🟡 Mid-term Observation (1-3 months)

1️⃣ Extremely low ecological conversion rate: The bridging TVL reaches $19.17B, but DeFi TVL is only $24.32M, with significant capital stagnation (conversion rate 1.27%). Attention should be paid to whether the application layer can activate liquidity.

2️⃣ Upgrade expectations: The Fork 12 upgrade in Q1 2026 promises a throughput increase of 50–60 times. If delivered smoothly, it could become a catalyst.

3️⃣ Staking support: 23.7% of the circulating supply is staked, reducing market selling pressure, but attention should be paid to the progress of PoS transformation.

📈 Key Price Levels

Support: $0.3345 (strong) → $0.3287 → $0.2546

Resistance: $0.3439–0.3471 (immediate) → $0.3534–0.3614 (key breakout zone)

🎯 Strategy Reference

Short-term: If it breaks below $0.3345, it may test $0.3287; a breakout above $0.3439 with increased volume could signal a reversal.

Mid-term: Progress in ecological conversion and successful upgrades are key variables. If DeFi TVL grows significantly, revaluation is expected.

Summary: Short-term pressure, mid-term potential depends on the conversion capability of 'capital stagnation → ecological application'. Closely monitor the unlocking performance on December 19 and the progress of the upgrade in Q1 2026.

This analysis is quite professional, right? Hope it helps you with trading.

#Merlin Red envelope brings good luck 🧧🧧🧧