Bitcoin is currently in a "moderate bear market" mid-phase? Experts issue a key warning! 🚨

Market expert Axel Adler's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin is currently down about -32%, in the "mid-phase" of a historical bear market cycle. However, unlike in the past (such as 2011 and 2016) where over 60% of holders experienced losses at the "capitulation point", currently up to 88% of BTC remains in an unrealized profit state, with only 12% at a loss.

This creates a critical divergence point: if the retracement stabilizes in the -35% to -40% range, it could signify the start of a "flattening" new cycle influenced by institutional demand and structural supply shortages. But if it breaks below -40%, it may usher in a classic bear market, with a decline possibly deepening to -60% to -70%.

💡 Core Insight: The current market resembles a "retracement in a super cycle bull market" rather than the end of a full bear market. The key is to hold the -35% defense line and observe whether the proportion of holders at a loss will surge. This determines whether we are heading towards a deeper correction or solidifying the foundation before moving up again.

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