What Polymarket is signalling
Some recent Polymarket-based analyses show a 71 % chance for Bitcoin to reach around US$126,000, and a roughly 46 % chance of hitting ~US$130,000 within the given timeframe.
Longer-term views are more conservative: one account of aggregated Polymarket bets points to a likely cap near US$138,000 for 2025, with some scenarios as low as about US$59,000 — indicating a broad possible range with considerable downside risk.
On the pessimistic side: a majority of bettors on Polymarket (≈ 61 %) currently expect BTC to remain below US$100,000 by end of 2025/2026.
What this “market-implied sentiment” means
Because Polymarket is a prediction market, the prices of its outcome-shares indicate the crowd’s collective probability estimate for events — in this case, certain BTC price thresholds.
Multiple, often divergent, probabilities (from bullish to bearish) reflect the large uncertainty that remains — meaning volatility and risk remain elevated.
The coexistence of both optimistic (120 K–130 K+) and cautious (sub-100 K) bets suggests traders are hedging: some expect upside, others prepare for downside.
What to keep in mind — and risks
Prediction-market odds are not guarantees. They reflect what people believe is likely — but unexpected macroeconomic events, regulations, or sudden shifts in demand/interest can overturn sentiment.
The wide range of outcomes (from ~59,000 to ~138,000) underscores how volatile and uncertain the crypto market remains.
Overreliance on sentiment alone — without fundamentals, macro factors or technical analysis — is risky.
#If you like, I can pull up 3–5 possible Bitcoin price-scenarios for 2026 based on Polymarket data plus macroeconomic indicators (dollar strength, interest rates etc.).#bitcoin.” #RateCutExpectations 
