1｜Market Temperature:
the big coin stands back at 92,000 but everyone is still cold-hearted
the overall market value is fluctuating between 3.2 T and 3.25 T
a slight increase of about 3% in 24 hours
BTC here
a drop from 90,000 a couple of days ago
now it has climbed back to around 92,000
a daily increase of 2–3% but still stuck in the range
ETH is actually looking better
the recent wave bounced from above 3k to around 3,300
over 6% increase in 24 hours
the news directly uses words like 'ignite the market'
The overall picture is
the price has support and also rebounds
but no one dares to say 'the bull is back'
more like the week before the FOMC
Everyone is watching the support at 90,000 and the pressure at 95,000
No one wants to take the lead
2｜Capital Flow：
The ETF is hitting the brakes, and the spot chain is relatively cold
US spot BTC ETF
There was a brief return in the past few days
But in recent days, there has been net outflow or approaching zero
Overall rhythm = in and out, but no new money is pouring in crazily
Coindesk also directly points out
Although the price is holding near 92,000
But the on-chain activity and new capital inflows
Still at the relatively low position of this cycle
Translated into retail language, it's
People in the market are exchanging hands with each other
The big money outside is still observing
Haven't seen the exaggerated scene of 'ETF continuously absorbing'
3｜Narrative and Emotion：
Talking about 500,000 but holding conservative positions
Today's news says
This kind of prophecy of 'BTC has a chance to see 500,000 in the long term'
On the other hand, it reminds you
This round started from the October high point
It has actually corrected nearly 40%
At the same time
Everyone is waiting for this FOMC
The market generally prices in a 25 bp rate cut
But also afraid that the central bank's speech won't be dovish enough
So the short-term strategy is leaning towards
delta-neutral, range trading
Using options and hedging to fiddle around
In simple terms
The story is still beautiful
But not many people really dare to speculate
More people are 'talking long while holding short'
4｜Sector Briefing：
Mainstream is stable, a few small tickets are performing
SOL is quite stable here
Recently, it has been maintained in the range of 135–140, fluctuating
Today's price is around 139
Market capitalization close to 78 billion dollars
Following the 'slowly climbing, no crazy rush' route
The ones truly putting on fireworks are a few small tickets:
ZEC, AVAX, XMR have all had significantly stronger rebounds than the market in recent days
The media is again throwing out titles like 'Is altseason coming?'
But the same article also honestly said
Broadly speaking, the altseason is still far away
Overall capital allocation
It's still centered around BTC / ETH / leading L1
Sporadically igniting privacy coins and old fork coins
Haven't seen a wide range of blooming yet
5｜Today's temperature line has been closed
The current temperature in the crypto circle
Basically, it's
The major pie is holding above 90,000
Ethereum is pulling harder than Bitcoin
ETF capital is rolling forward while hitting the brakes
Small tickets take turns to put on fireworks, but no complete takeoff
Can earn but can also lose
But not the kind of market where 'even with closed eyes you can make money'
My own understanding is
At this time
Compared to heavily betting on direction
More importantly
Knowing which range to play in
How much are you willing to lose
Where to admit defeat and stop
First check the temperature, then adjust positions
Let's leave it at that for today
If you think it's good, please like and follow, giving me a reason to keep rambling on 😂
