The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM EST on December 10 (3:30 AM Beijing time on December 11), with Powell in attendance.
Recent statements from several global institutions have shown some consistent direction.
1) The OECD's energy inflation continues to decline.
Energy costs have fallen in more than twenty countries, supply pressures have eased, and the overall inflation environment is improving.
In this context, there is greater space for monetary policy to shift from a high-pressure state back to a neutral range.
2) The IMF emphasized enhancing productivity in Beijing.
The focus of the discussion has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing growth and improving efficiency," indicating a shift in the concerns of international institutions, with an overall tone leaning towards medium to long-term stability.
3) The BIS is paying attention to the repricing of global interest rates and derivatives markets.
This indicates that the cost of funds has entered a new sensitive phase, and the market is reassessing future policy paths.
4) The CFTC continues to emphasize regulatory clarity.
There has been an increase in expressions related to cross-border transactions and market access; the internal regulatory framework in the United States is gradually solidifying, with a greater long-term impact on risky assets than short-term news.
Overall, the macro environment is transitioning from a peak of tightening to a manageable phase.
Tomorrow's press conference will determine the market's rhythm before the end of the year.
If the tone is dovish, the response from risk assets will be more positive;
If it remains cautious, the market will wait for the next round of key data before making choices.
