The Battle at 3 AM! The Core Logic and Layout Guide Behind the Market Movements on Interest Rate Cut Night
The big market has erupted as expected! Starting from 11 PM last night, the market began a surprise rally, and many traders must have sensed the atmosphere of a decisive battle—3 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell's speech is bound to be a sleepless night!
The direct trigger for this wave of movement was the unexpected U.S. October job openings data reported at 7.67 million, significantly higher than the market estimate of 7.15 million. The data behind it releases a key signal: the cooling pace of the U.S. job market is significantly slower than expected, and economic resilience exceeds previous judgments.
The market immediately gave a gambling response: if the economy remains supportive, after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the early morning, the pace of advancing the easing policy in 2024 may be forced to slow down, and some viewpoints even believe that this interest rate cut may become the endpoint of this cycle. Under this expectation, funds entered the market early to seize the favorable window period, while also harboring doubts about the subsequent upward space, creating the current contradictory pattern of "rebound before favorable news lands, but concerns about policy turning suppressing the increase."
Core operational advice points to the key: do not bet unilaterally before major news lands, and high-leverage operations must be completely avoided! The real trend decision will be revealed after 3 AM, and two core variables must be closely monitored: first, Powell's policy tone statement at the press conference (dovish/hawkish directly affects market sentiment), and second, the officials' interest rate forecast "dot plot" revealing the policy path for 2024. These two signals will directly determine whether the current rebound is a trend starting point or a fleeting false rally.
