In the eighth year of the cryptocurrency world, I still have an old hard drive from mining in 2016 in my drawer. The old joke about trading Bitcoin for pizza back then now feels like a time capsule. Today, I saw a newcomer anxiously wondering if '0.1 Bitcoin can endure to achieve financial freedom.' I want to say: the key is not the amount, but whether you can withstand the 'anti-human' holding period.
1. Scarcity? More brutal than you think
Many people know that the Bitcoin cap is 21 million coins, but few have calculated the 'actual circulating supply':
Permanently lost coins: early miners wrote private keys on paper, hard drives became obsolete, wrong addresses were sent to... It's estimated that at least 1.57 million Bitcoins have permanently disappeared. This accounts for 7.5% of the total supply, which is more than the gold reserves of many small countries.
Institutional 'vampirism': Companies like MicroStrategy have hoarded nearly 600,000 coins, and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings exceed $80 billion. Institutions are buying up the already limited circulating tokens every day.
Halving effect: After the halving in 2024, the annual production of new coins will only be 3.125 coins per block. The supply growth rate of Bitcoin has fallen below 1%, lower than that of gold.
This means that 0.1 Bitcoin in the future may be like having one gram of gold now—the scarcity will make it a hard currency among 'asset scraps.'
2. Long-term trends? Institutions have already paved the way for you.
Newbies often struggle with the question, 'Should I run after a 5% drop today?', but big funds are not focused on short-term fluctuations:
Irreversible compliance: After the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, Wall Street funds have included Bitcoin in the asset allocation of the 'regular army.' Even if prices have recently adjusted, Standard Chartered still predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 by 2030.
Cycle patterns: Bitcoin's compound growth rate over the past 13 years has exceeded 100%, but it experiences a cycle of 'price surge - pullback - bottoming' every four years after halving. The recent pullback to $113,000 is merely a short-term profit-taking by whales, while ETF funds continue to flow in.
Position transformation: Bitcoin is no longer 'dark web currency,' but a hedging tool against the excessive issuance of sovereign currencies. Salvador has designated Bitcoin as legal tender, and Iran uses it for import and export settlements, which is far more significant than retail speculation.
3. Is 0.1 Bitcoin really enough?
Assuming Bitcoin reaches 7 million yuan per coin by 2035 (as some predictions suggest), 0.1 coins would be worth 700,000 yuan—perhaps not enough to retire in first-tier cities, but if you continue to invest regularly:
Investment strategy: Invest 5%-10% of your salary monthly; the Bitcoin accumulated over ten years may exceed 1 coin.
Risk hedging: Treat Bitcoin as a 'satellite allocation' in family assets, with a proportion not exceeding 10%. Even if it goes to zero, it won't affect your life; if it rises, it accelerates freedom.
The essence of financial freedom is not getting rich quickly, but the expansion of choices. Bitcoin is more like an 'acceleration coupon' for this ticket, rather than a safety net.
4. Honest words for beginners
Don't learn to 'diamond hands' and hold on: Early holders became wealthy mostly because they forgot their private keys or were forced to hold long-term. Can ordinary people withstand a 50% crash?
Beware of leverage: The liquidation rate in the contract market exceeds 80%. I have seen cases where people mortgaged their houses to go all-in on Bitcoin and ended up in debt.
Hardware wallets are the bottom line: With exchanges going bankrupt and frequent hacker attacks, long-term holdings must be transferred to cold wallets.
Eight years ago, I laughed at the 'Bitcoin buys pizza' as performance art. Looking back now, that was the first embodiment of trust. Whether 0.1 Bitcoin can achieve freedom by 2048 depends on your ability to ignore short-term fluctuations like storing old jade and embrace the essence of scarcity.
The value of Bitcoin will ultimately reflect your patience and understanding. Follow Ake to learn more first-hand information and accurate points of knowledge about the crypto world, becoming your guide in the crypto space, as learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $ETH
