Recently, looking at $MERL on-chain, the biggest feeling is:
Big players are more anxious than we are.
Today’s operation of directly transferring 16 million pieces to the exchange, even if you say it's "just a convenient deposit," I don't believe it.
What's more critical is — the timing is too coincidental, particularly pinching at the unlocking period.
Once the on-chain rhythm is disrupted, small investors' emotions will be influenced:
Seeing large amounts entering the exchange, many people's first reaction is to "hide for a while," resulting in decreasing liquidity and increasingly unsustainable prices.
Once this on-chain sentiment reverses, it typically won't stop the bleeding immediately.
With the current trend, it wouldn't be surprising to continue probing down to the range of 0.25~0.2.
In the short term, I still lean bearish; the rhythm has not returned at all.
