$BTC Analysis: Bitcoin’s Breakout to $108,500 Keeps Failing for These Two Reasons —Both Fixable?
Bitcoin is still tracking the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that formed on November 16, but the neckline at $93,700 remains the key obstacle. Every breakout attempt has been rejected cleanly, and without a daily close above that level, the bullish structure cannot fully activate.
The second major headwind comes from whale positioning. Addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more have been trimming their exposure since November 19. Their count fell to a monthly low of 1,303 on December 3 and has barely recovered since. This weakens each breakout attempt because the cohort that normally fuels major expansions is still staying on the sidelines.
A similar pattern played out earlier this month: Bitcoin tapped $93,400 while whale holdings dropped from 1,316 to 1,303, followed by a quick 4.4% pullback to $89,300. When price rises but large holders de-risk, upside momentum often fades.
These two factors — the $93,700 resistance and cautious whales — explain why BTC keeps failing to break out. The good news is that neither issue is structural.
A potential short-squeeze setup could still carry the market higher. Over the past 30 days on Binance, short liquidation leverage sits at $3.66 billion versus $2.22 billion on the long side — nearly 50% higher. If BTC pushes above $93,700 again, shorts could unwind aggressively.
A clean daily close above $93,700 would pave the way toward $94,600. Clearing that zone opens the path to $105,200, with the pattern’s full measured move targeting $108,500 — roughly 15.7% above the neckline. The structure stays valid above $83,800; a drop below $80,500 would invalidate it and risk a deeper correction if whales continue reducing exposure.
