Trade Setups
Focus on high-probability, risk-defined plays around the FOMC. Use 1–4H timeframes for entries; scale out on targets. Risk no more than 1–2% per trade. All setups assume spot or futures (BTCUSD on Binance/Bybit); adjust for leverage.
1. Bullish Setup: Breakout Long (FOMC Dovish Bias)
Rationale: If Fed signals easing, expect short squeeze continuation. Options data shows bullish bets at $94K strike; on-chain accumulation supports rebound to $100K+ by year-end (22% upside per models).
Entry: $93,500–$94,000 (break/close above resistance with volume >$50B 24h).
Stop Loss: $91,500 (below S/R flip~2% risk).
Targets:
TP1: $97,000 (1:2 RR; partial exit 50%).
TP2: $100,000 (1:3 RR; trail stop).
Stretch: $103,000–$108,000 (if weekly close >$95K).
Probability: ~65% (per technicals and sentiment).
Invalidation: Drop below $92,000 pre-FOMC.
2. Bearish Setup: Breakdown Short (Hawkish Surprise)
Rationale: If no cut or hawkish dots plot, downside to $80K–$88K aligns with falling channel and bearish on-chain signals (e.g., whale selling). Options max pain at $84.8K.
Entry: $91,500 (break below support; confirm with RSI <50).
Stop Loss: $93,500 (above resistance~2% risk).
Targets:
TP1: $88,000–$88,245 (1:2 RR; partial 50%).
TP2: $85,000 (1:3 RR).
Stretch: $80,000 (if weekly close <$78K).
Probability: ~25% (lower due to liquidity tailwinds, but viable on macro risks).
Invalidation: Pump above $94,000.
