$ETH Tonight's big bullish candle is a lesson in 'buying at high positions' for retail investors.
First, the conclusion: This is not a new bull market; it's a 'technical surge' caused by short covering + institutional reallocation. $BTC $SOL
1. Short positions are too crowded; what's exploding isn't the shorts, it's the leveraged structure.
The fundamental reason for this wave of increase is just one:
There are too many people shorting.
Previously, ETH fell continuously, market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, and a large amount of capital opened high-multiplication short positions.
As a result, when the price surged:
The first batch of shorts stop-loss → passively bought back.
The second batch of shorts went bankrupt → forced liquidation by the exchange.
The third batch of chasing shorts → directly buried.
This 400-point rise is not essentially 'capital looking bullish,' but a buying pressure created by the corpses of short positions.
2. This is a typical 'liquidity recovery market.'
You can observe a few details:
The rise time is concentrated.
A straight surge, almost no pullback.
Trading volume expands, but it’s not sustained.
This is not a healthy rise; it's the main force recovering liquidity.
In simple terms: there are sellers above wanting to offload, and below there must be buyers.
3. US stocks + ETF are just excuses, not the fundamental reason.
Many 'bullish bloggers' will say: 'US stocks have risen,' 'ETH ETF expectations are back,' 'institutions are optimistic,' 'on-chain activity has increased.'
But the real logic is: winners never wait for good news to buy; they buy first and then let the market find reasons for them. This wave of increase had a surge first, then a story, not the other way around.
4. The current psychology of retail investors: the beginning of another bait.
With every violent rebound, retail investors experience the same psychology:
'Is the trend reversing?'
'Is this time different?'
'It's harder to miss out than to lose money.'
