Don't just focus on whether interest rates will be cut anymore. The real signal lies in another overlooked action: the Federal Reserve has quietly stopped its balance sheet reduction that lasted for three years.
Balance sheet reduction is equivalent to "sucking liquidity" out of the market. Now that it has stopped, it often indicates that the liquidity pool's water level has approached warning lines—the fluctuations in overnight interbank rates are proof of this, just like the funding pools in DeFi that are about to hit the bottom, with slippage quietly surging. The system is sending a signal.
Therefore, what is more important than the extent of interest rate cuts is the upcoming script: the Federal Reserve is likely preparing to "inject liquidity" again.
Multiple channels indicate that a new round of balance sheet expansion may already be on the agenda, with hundreds of billions of dollars likely to be injected into the market monthly starting early next year. This is not speculation, but a necessity of policy after liquidity hits the bottom.
Once this floodgate opens, the new liquidity will surge towards global hard assets like Bitcoin and gradually spill over into risk markets.
Your asset prices will rise accordingly.
But please be clear: this is not a gift, but a "debt monetization" at the cost of future volatility.
Water can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it. What you need to do is not to panic and chase after the water arrives, but to steadily board your boat before the tide comes.
Ordinary people are still discussing interest rate hikes and cuts in the headlines, while smart money has already observed the direction of balance sheet changes. The transfer of wealth is always silent. It is hidden in policy details, written in the flow of funds. Now, you have heard it. @luck萧
