The Night Before the Federal Reserve Decision: The Core Thinking of Short-term Traders

At 3 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. In the face of a rate cut that has already been fully priced in by the market, many opinions suggest that 'expectations have been fully digested,' and market fluctuations are limited. However, the reality may not be so simple.

Core Viewpoint: The decision itself is a period; the statements after the meeting mark the true beginning of the turning point.

The market has no suspense regarding a 25 basis point rate cut. Therefore, if only a rate cut is announced, the market is likely to experience only a brief, programmed fluctuation without forming a clear trend. The real market drivers are not in the decision itself but in the press conference with Powell half an hour later and the 'dot plot' revealing the future interest rate path.

Three Core Directions:

1. Hawkish Rate Cut: Announce a rate cut but imply a pause in subsequent easing. This will be seen as bearish and may put pressure on the market, testing Bitcoin's lower support.

2. Dovish Surprise: Cut rates and maintain an open attitude toward future easing, or imply potential balance sheet expansion. This would boost risk appetite and could drive Bitcoin higher.

3. Fully In Line with Expectations: Only execute the rate cut without providing guidance beyond expectations. The market will lack a new narrative, likely continuing the oscillating pattern.

Action Framework:

1. Before the Decision: Reduce positions, clear leverage, and remain cautious.

2. At the Decision: Maintain patience and do not chase the intense fluctuations in the first few minutes.

3. After the Decision: Focus on listening to Powell's remarks and observe market choices. Wait for price to increase in volume.

After breaking through the current oscillating range, enter positions lightly for right-side following, and set strict stop losses.

True trend turning points are often clarified only after the decision is fully digested. The current primary task is to preserve strength; discipline is the only guarantee to navigate uncertainty.