📌 XRP — Where Things Stand in December 2025
• Current context & performance: XRP recently dropped from a rally peak (~ $2.90) to around $2.04 after a broad crypto pull-back.
• Signs of potential recovery: On the weekly chart, XRP may be forming an “engulfing reversal” pattern and its RSI momentum indicator is rebounding — both could signal a bounce back soon.
• Institutional interest & structural change: Growth in institutional demand — via newly launched XRP-focused ETFs — has coincided with a drop in exchange reserves (i.e. fewer XRP tokens available for trading), which could tighten supply.
⚠️ Risks & What Could Go Wrong
• Selling pressure from long-term holders: A significant portion of XRP supply is clustered around $2.44–$2.46. If those holders sell, it could cap upside or even push price down.
• Market-wide volatility & macro factors: XRP remains sensitive to broader cryptocurrency and macroeconomic trends — any global risk-off wave or liquidity stress could weigh heavily on it.
• Mixed historical seasonality: While December is historically among the better months for XRP, returns vary widely — with big surges in some years and notable losses in others.
🔭 What to Watch — Possible Scenarios
• Bullish case: With ETF inflows, tightening supply, and a technical reversal forming, XRP could rebound toward near-term resistance zones (e.g. $2.60–$2.80).
• Base-case / cautious view: XRP might trade sideways between $2.00–$2.40 for a while as the market digests institutional flows and broader crypto sentiment.
• Bearish risk: If macro trends remain negative and selling pressure from major holders resumes, XRP could retest previous support levels near $1.70–$2.00.
